Chile tries again to change its Constitution, with the rise of the right

First modification: 05/05/2023 – 03:33

On Sunday, the 50 constituents in charge of drafting the proposal for a new Constitution will be elected. This time, the context is different from that of 2021, when the population was still in the effervescence of the social situation of 2019. But after the rejection of 62% of the first proposal for a constitution in September 2022, citizens now show a general lack of interest in the election and in the constituent process itself.

“There are elections on Sunday and many people don’t even know what they vote for,” Estefanía Andahur, from the Red de Politólogas, told EFE.

According to the Criteria survey, published at the beginning of April, only 31% of Chileans are interested in drafting a new Constitution. Chile currently has a Constitution inherited from the dictatorship (1973-1990) and reformed several times during the democratic period.

“Many of those who were in favor of the previous proposal feel disenchanted and think that the process is controlled from above,” explained Claudia Heiss, from the University of Chile.

This year, the novelty is the participation of a group of 24 experts appointed by Parliament whose mission is to prepare a draft that will serve as a basis for the 50 constituents. Of the 50 directors, 25 will be women and 25 men.

Upon receiving the draft proposed by the experts, the new directors will have five months from next June to make modifications. The final text will be submitted to a referendum in December.

According to several experts, it is an electoral appointment with an unpredictable result due to the conjuncture of several factors: “the great characteristic of this election is that it has a compulsory vote (for the first time since 2012) at a time when a large part of the population feels a high lack of interest in politics and rejects the system and the traditional parties”, explained to EFE the academic Isabel Castillo, from the Faculty of Government of the University of Chile.

ascent to the right

The right is divided between three factions and will wage a fierce battle. There is the traditional alliance, which goes by the name of Chile Seguro, the emerging extreme right called the Republican Party, and the emerging populist Party of the People.

The big question mark in these elections is the number of seats that the far-right Republican Party and the People’s Party will get. In the last election, these parties did not participate as they were recently formed.

“The fate of this process is at stake on May 7. The Republicans and the People’s Party are predicted to have almost 20 seats. If they exceed 30, they will have veto power because the constitutional norms will need 3/5 to be approved. It is likely boycott everything,” warns Javier Couso, an academic at the Diego Portales University and the University of Utrecht.

But for Heiss, rather than hinder the process, these right-wing parties will try to “guarantee that the 1980 Constitution is reproduced and the status quo is maintained.”

Gabriel Boric weakened

On the most official side, Gabriel Boric could take a hit given the low popularity of the current government, which now has around 30% approval.

“The issues more typical of the left have been eclipsed by security, which is the flag of the right. The left has not known how to defend its flags,” Octavio Avendaño, from the University of Chile, told EFE.

“Taking into account that the only thing that is talked about in Chile is security and migration, I fear that the bias of this convention is more to the right than the average (ideological position) of the voter,” Couso also said.

The formation of the Government arrives divided in this election, since after several weeks of negotiations, it was not possible to reconcile the two souls of the coalition and they had to separate in two.

Unity for Chile is the name of the list of the socialists and the forces most to the left of the government coalition, bringing together the party where Gabriel Boric militates.

On the other hand, the traditional center left presents a list called Todos por Chile and will try to seduce moderate voters.

If the sum of the two lists falls below 21 of the 50 seats in contention, “the center left will be somewhat weakened, but not so much as to break the government alliance,” according to the political scientist from the Diego Portales Vicente University. Innostroza.

with EFE