the dark side of the land of smiles

Thailand’s population is estimated to peak in 2029 and then begin to decline rapidly. The birth rate has dropped to 1.3 children per woman and the elderly are already 22.9% of the population, but they do not have an adequate protection system.

Bangkok () – With a few weeks to go before the May 14 elections – which presents many unknowns but should also open up possibilities to emerge from a crisis derived not only from the Covid-19 pandemic – Thailand is counting its population and above all the limits of its demographic dynamics.

Located today in 22nd place among the countries in the world, with 66.09 million inhabitants as of December 31, 2022, its curve is expected to reach its maximum point in 2029, reaching 70.38 million. But, according to UN estimates, the subsequent fall could, already in 2050, push the “Country of Smiles” back to 65.94 million inhabitants, and continue to decline to 46.02 million by the end of the century. Obviously, if other factors do not intervene and Thai society’s policy of exclusion of the millions of immigrants from neighboring countries who come to work continues: 984,000 registered, although in reality there are many more.

The demographic crisis in Thailand follows two lines. The first is the reduction in fertility: currently the average is 1.3 children per woman of reproductive age. Hand in hand, goes the constant aging of the population. These factors have been influenced, more than by access to new lifestyles, by better health, housing and food conditions, by greater individualism and greater independence of women.

With a considerable increase in life expectancy, which is currently 77.7 years, the median age of the population has risen significantly to 38.8 years. The percentage of elderly people out of the total population, which in 2020 was 20.3, has risen to 22.9, and on the contrary, the proportion of children from 0 to 14 years old went from 16.0% to 15, 2%.

However, the government welfare system is not only selective but also flawed. Only 32.6% of the active population can count on some type of retirement, while 83% of those over 65 continue to depend on some form of work activity to support their own needs and, on occasions, even those of their children and grandchildren.

For all these reasons, the demographic issue in Thailand is increasingly the subject of debate in the media and social networks, both in terms of national identity and in terms of birth support and assistance to the older segments of the population. Even politics – which generally pays little attention to long-term strategies – cannot fail to take it into account in electoral proposals, even though none of the parties has so far included it among their priorities.