The fighting does not stop on the fifth day of the political violence that touches Sudan and that seems to bring it to the brink of civil war, while hundreds of people have already lost their lives. The current conflict confronts two generals, former allies turned enemies, and whose dispute explains the origin of the clashes. Some that are also explained by the variety of international actors that have interests in this country in the Horn of Africa.
Since the coup d’état on October 25, 2021, which brought to power the head of the Sudanese regular army and de facto ruler of Sudan, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the threat of implosion was latent. At that time, according to some analysts in the region, the seizure of power was only the “semifinal” and we had to wait for the “final.”
On April 15, the second conflict seems to have opened, with the escalation of the confrontation between generals Al Burhan and his former ally turned enemy, Mohammed Hamdane Daglo, known as ‘Hemetti’, head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (FAR). ).
The violence launched by the two generals and their men has claimed the lives of at least 270 people and injured hundreds more, according to the latest United Nations estimates released on April 18, 2023.
From Allies to Enemies: General Al Burhan and Hemetti’s Struggle for Power
In the months since 2021, the rivalry between Al Burhan and Hemetti has escalated into a cutthroat battle for power.
The two rivals have opposite trajectories. Al Burhan is a career officer who did part of his military studies in Egypt and who —little by little— rose through the ranks in the Sudanese Army. For his part, Hemetti is a Darfurian militiaman, having officiated in the ‘Janjaweed’, the Arab militias that Khartoum used in the 2000s to fight non-Arab rebels in this region of western Sudan.
Hemetti then became the leader of the FAR, a branch of the ‘Janjaweed’. For the experts of the region consulted by this means, this condition of militiaman supposes for the general an inferiority complex in front of the military and career officers of the Sudanese Army, who also “despise” him.
Before their antagonism came to light, the two had sealed an alliance at the beginning of the transition period of 2019, which followed the end of the autocratic regime of Omar al-Bashir (1993-2019). “They needed each other to seize power and overthrow the Omar al Bashir regime,” explains Antoine Galindo, a journalist specializing in Sudan.
In the weeks and months following his fall, Al Burhan and Hemetti found themselves at the forefront of the transition. By then, the specialist explained to France 24, “both men already had personal ambitions. But it was not (yet) the time to bring them to light, because the international community and internal pressure pushed them to share power with civilians.” .
After the fall of the Al-Bashir regime in 2019, Sudan had been considered, especially by the West, as a potential pole of stability in the Horn of Africa region. However, in 2021 a new phase began in the country, due to the inability of civil coalitions to unite to apply the economic and institutional reforms necessary to gradually reintegrate into the international system since during Al-Bashir’s tenure, the nation was greatly isolated.
Taking advantage of this dissent within the civil coalition, the military and paramilitaries led the October 2021 coup and ousted civilians from power, crushing in the process the aspiration of the Sudanese people for freedom and democracy. This left Al-Burhan and Hemetti in sole control of Sudan.
But their alliance turned out to be a marriage of convenience aimed at keeping civilians out of power. Al-Burhan and Hemetti, who claimed to rule the country, ended up at odds in their fight for control of Sudan. A divorce from an old alliance that is explained by the personal interests of the two to seize power individually, as well as deep economic ambitions.
Instability in the region and struggles for geopolitical influence
But the situation that Sudan is currently experiencing does not emerge solely from the series of events that have occurred within the African country in the last four years. It also responds to a larger game set in the Horn of Africa region.
The geopolitics of the area involve multiple international interests, ranging from the ambitions of the United States (US) to counter China’s influence, to Russia’s interests in expanding its area of influence. A struggle to which are added the claims of the Gulf States, Turkey and other less visible actors.
But according to Galindo, “foreign influence is not the first factor and perhaps not the most important (…). It remains in the background and has been possible due to the situation in Sudan and the rivalry between the two (generals)”.
Thus, according to the analyst, “regional and international powers maintain close ties with one or the other of the two generals. In this sense, for example, Egypt maintains better relations with Al-Burhan, but has not officially sided with neither”.
For Aleksi Ylonen, a specialist researcher on the Horn of Africa at the Center for International Studies of the Lisbon University Institute, the current situation is due above all to the two generals who “have interests in the Sudanese economy, strong business interests and also political power.”
But, according to the expert, there are also several external interests that intervene “particularly regional, from the Arab countries, which affect this situation.” And he adds: “We have countries like Saudi Arabia, (United Arab) Emirates and Egypt, which have very important links to the military establishment in Sudan.”
In recent years, Egypt has provided the Sudanese military with equipment and is counting on it to oppose the large Ethiopian-built dam on the Nile, which could affect the two countries’ water supplies. The issue of the large dam is a key issue for Cairo, which is determined to do everything possible to prevent the country of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from controlling the river’s currents.
To do this, Al-Sisi has even tried for a long time to destabilize Addis Ababa by supporting, for example, the rebels of the Tigray Defense Forces – a movement at war with the central government, until a peace agreement was signed in November 2022 in Pretoria (South Africa)—. The civilian component of the Sudanese government was opposed to this support for the Tigray rebels, as was General Hemetti, who was close to some Ethiopian officials.
For the United States, the post-Omar al-Bashir Sudan was an important piece in a strategy of reconquest in the region of the Horn of Africa. The goal was to counter various types of influence, starting with China and, more recently, Russia.
Moscow, for its part, had obtained an agreement during the time of Omar al-Bashir to establish a “naval base” in the city of Port Sudan to house warships. A project questioned by the civil Administration, which caused the discontent of the Kremlin.
The Russians are involved in the mining sector in Sudan and, according to regional sources, the Wagner group is also present in the country, where it exploits gold mines together with the FAR, which it has helped to enrich. However, Russia is prudent and, according to observers in the region, is close to both sides.
But the geopolitical game goes further. Qatar, long linked to the Omar al-Bashir regime, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have now taken more space in Sudan and forged ties with both Al-Burhan and Hemetti. The FAR chief has even sent men to Yemen to bolster the Saudi-led military coalition against the Houthi rebels.
Today, the tension has reached a point where the red line of armed confrontation has been crossed and neither Al-Burhan nor Hemetti are sending signals of appeasement.
The United States — which is making repeated calls for calm and in dialogue with all the actors involved — has called on Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, the most influential foreign powers in Sudan, to bring the belligerents to a lasting ceasefire. But until international mediation can exert its influence to calm the military and paramilitaries, the 45 million Sudanese remain hostages of the fighting.
