The dollar in Colombia will have a Representative Market Rate (TRM – official price) of 4,425.27 pesos during this Monday, April 17.
This value is one of the lowest that the currency has registered in the country in the last year, only surpassed by the 4,424 pesos from last Friday, April 14, 2023 and three other prices from 2022: 4,423 pesos (July), 4,422 pesos (September) and 4,420 pesos (July and September).
(See: Would it be possible to have a dollar again at 4,000 pesos or less?).
In that downward path that the dollar has had in recent days, April 2023 has followed the trend of the end of March and has been very important: only in the second week of the fourth month of the year, the currency lost 145 pesos.
Among other factors, the losses are related to the measures taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed – the central bank) to curb inflation, the increase in the price of oil and the banking crisis that hit the United States and some European banks. at the end of March.
The bearish outlook has surprised and has reassured the Colombian economy, so busy lately. However, like everything, the streak will stop at some point, but when would that happen and what scenario would follow?
(See: Buy or sell dollars, what is recommended at this time?).
Darío Rondón, Operations professional at the investment bank Values AAA,
he estimates, from a technical analysis, that the minimum price the dollar would reach would be 4,200 pesos.
“In the medium or short term, continuing with the appreciative trend of the last few months, the dollar could touch minimum values of 4,200 pesos, but a small rebound is expected and the currency moves at slightly higher values, rotating on prices of the last months“, he valued.
The expert explained that some factors that could invert the price curve in the short term are associated with macroeconomic scenarios, to uncertainty in internal political measures that would generate a country risk and to external situations, such as new measures by the Fed or bearish values in ‘commodities’ (oil).
(See: Colombian peso, the third most revalued currency in the world).
David Pérez-Reyna, professor at the Faculty of Economics at the Universidad de los Andes, For his part, he assured that to the extent that they have not “surprises” that may affect the country’s fiscal sustainability or competitiveness, the dollar will continue to fall to get closer to the most similar behavior that other currencies in Latin America have had.
“However, there is still a long way to go. I have seen estimates that if the Colombian peso had behaved with respect to the dollar similar to that of the Mexican peso or the Peruvian sol in recent months, the exchange rate should be below 4,000“, he added.
(See: After more than 6 months, the dollar is back below $4,500).
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