The strategy is reminiscent of the one used by the Chechens in the battle of Grozny back in 1995: the Ukrainian army that is still resisting in Bakhmut mines the major targets of the urban struggle -administrative and residential buildings, stations, emblematic monuments…- and waits for the enemy attack. When it does, instead of opting for an all-out defense of the positions, the resistance withdraws a few meters and, once Russian troops have entered said objective, they blow it up.
This would explain, as the war expert points out Majakovsk on their social networks, recent images of buildings collapsing in the middle of nowhere, a circumstance that was attributed to the use of heavy artillery by the Russian army, but which may respond to a scorched earth policy.
Sooner or later, Bakhmut will fall completely – it is rumored that the Russians may already have taken the railway station and the main square, as well as be fighting for the grain elevator – but his capture will be for nothing. There will be no city to annex, only ruins.
[¿Por qué es importante la ciudad de Bakhmut para Vladímir Putin en la guerra contra Ucrania?]
The decision is very hard for the Ukrainian high command, but at this point there is no room for consideration. Bakhmut has long been an uninhabitable wasteland, “European Hiroshima”. The Russian army and the Wagner Group are responsible for this destruction with their months-long siege. All Ukraine is doing now is resisting and hoping that one day the territory can be reclaimed and the city reformed, something that will only be possible under conditions of peace.
The meat grinder
This destruction of civilian targets obviously hides more than just pride. According to the Institute for the Study of the War, only in the last two weeks, Russia would have suffered four thousand casualties in Bakhmut. It is understood that the figure includes deaths and injuries, but it is still very high.
If we take into account that two months ago Western experts asked Ukraine to withdraw from the city because the ratio of victims to both sides was no longer advantageous, it is becoming increasingly clear that the decision to stay has been a wise move. . It should be noted that Ukraine probably does not have even four thousand men in total defending the urban center.
The Ukrainian resistance has not only caused a catastrophe in the Wagner Group, but also, keeping open the possibility of fleeing to Chasiv Yar, has forced the Russian army to divert troops from Avdiivka to complete the capture of the city. In this way, Ukraine not only manages to station enemy troops in Bakhmut that cannot be used in other areas of the front that are more important for the future of the war, but also forces Russia to ease the pressure on the outskirts of the capital Donetskwhere the attacks were taking place, although without much success.
Ukrainian soldiers near Bakhmut.
Reuters
The next objective for the Ukraine in Bakhmut, with tongs and cauldrons ruled out, would be to retreat to the outskirts of the city, to the Soviet-era housing complex on the west side, with its tall buildings that allow snipers to prime themselves with weapons. units attempting to advance. Undoubtedly, this will cause many more casualties between what remains of Wagner and the deployed units of the Russian regular army, in a very advantageous proportion for the resisters.
Time for the counterattack
It could be the case that, once Russia manages, after almost a year, to take over the entire city, they immediately suffer a counterattack that would return them to the positions of early autumn. The Russian troops are exhausted, they have been fighting in extreme conditions for months, they have seen their comrades drop like flies and they are not going to find anything of the least value in their victory.
The question is if Ukraine is better, of course. From the outset, we know that his army is much more prepared than a year agowhen he gave up a similar defense of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk and simply held out long enough to prevent the Russian army from advancing much further into Donbas.
Bakhmut’s own resistance without great displays or heroism indicates that Russian superiority must be highly doubted. If Ukraine could send reserves to the area, organize new units and already have the promised weapons, the possibility of retaking Bakhmut would deal a devastating psychological blow to Russia.
Now, analysts talk a lot about psychological blows, but the reality on the ground is something else. input, Ukraine may not yet be ready for a counteroffensive anywhereas the alleged leaked Pentagon papers point out, or perhaps his idea is to carry out an attack in several directions, taking advantage of the enormous difficulty of the Russians to move their troops from one point to another on the front, and for this it requires even more time .
In recent days, there has been much talk of Ukraine’s inability to mount a counter-offensive worthy of the name and the need to wait perhaps until June. Such insistence is reminiscent of when it was claimed that it was impossible to defend kyiv or defend Mikolaiv or defend Bakhmut itself.
Ukraine may indeed be as exhausted as Russia, or may be pretending to be. Of course, if there is a minimum of forces and material left, this is the moment to try it. Later, everything can change.
