the possibility of a truce in Yemen

Ongoing talks between pro-government leaders and Houthi forces reassess the role of UN and Omani diplomacy. The ongoing prisoner exchange has led to the release of 13 war detainees held by Riyadh. A ceasefire could be announced at the end of the month. On the table there are some unresolved knots. The presence of various actors, including Al Qaeda, complicates the picture.

Milan () – There are signs of peace, or at least of a possible truce. From Yemen, bloodied for years by a war as terrible as it was forgotten by international diplomacy and Western foreign ministries, come rumors of an imminent ceasefire. The news was reported yesterday by a Yemeni government official, and reported by the Chinese news agency xinhua, after a meeting in Sanaa between a mixed delegation of Saudi and Omani representatives and the Houthi leaders of the Iranian-backed rebel movement. All this crowned by an exchange of prisoners that would demonstrate, once again, the change of course after a long period of tension and stagnation in the negotiations.

The recent resumption of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, thanks to the mediation of Beijing, seems to have reactivated regional diplomacy and could favor the resolution of several burning fronts in the Middle East. One of these is Yemen, where UN efforts have been complementing Muscat’s mediation efforts for years. The April 9 meeting is the first to bring together senior Houthi and Saudi representatives around a negotiating table in the Yemeni capital, in the presence of delegates from the sultanate. Mohammed bin Saeed Al-Jaber, Saudi ambassador to Yemen, referred to the meeting, whose main objective is to reactivate the ceasefire, resume negotiations, encourage the exchange of prisoners and explore the possibilities of dialogue between the warring factions to “reach a sustainable and far-reaching political solution”.

prisoner exchange

The Yemeni government itself, recognized by the international community, expressed its optimism in this regard. Through the Minister of Information, Moammar al-Eryani, he referred to an “atmosphere more favorable than ever to restore peace” in the country. Achieving the objective, he added, would be “a victory for constitutional legitimacy” and for the “coalition led by Saudi Arabia.” In addition, he underlines how fundamental is the resumption of relations between the Islamic Republic and the Wahhabi kingdom, which “has favored the environment to achieve a lasting peace”, to the point of wanting to extend the ceasefire from six months to a year. According to several concurring sources, the agreement would be formalized by the end of April at the latest.

A sign that confirms the seriousness of the ongoing attempts is the exchange of prisoners, which took place in recent days. A spokesman for the militants said this was part of international efforts to achieve peace. Abdul-Qader el-Murtaza, a spokesman for the Houthis, referred to Riyadh’s release of 13 prisoners of war in exchange for the release of a Saudi prisoner. The fact is part of a broader agreement – reached with the mediation of the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross last month in Switzerland – added the senior official, which provides for the release of a total of 887 detainees.

The repeated failures on the diplomatic front have contributed to increasing a dramatic balance of a conflict that, since 2014, has claimed some 400,000 lives and has caused the “worst humanitarian crisis in the world”in which Covid-19 has had an effect “devastating”. Millions of people are on the brink of starvation and children -11,000 killed in the conflict- will suffer the consequences during decades. There are more than three million internally displaced people, most of whom live in misery, go hungry and are exposed to epidemics, including cholera. At the military level, the war has not caused major changes on the ground: the Houthis (Ansar Allah) govern two thirds of the population and control one third of the territory. The hottest front is Marib Governorate, where pro-Iranian rebels launched an offensive that was met with government resistance, however. To maintain power, the rebels do not hesitate to resort to an authoritarian regime, which does not respect any human rights and represses dissent through imprisonment, executions -even of minors, who continue to be used as child soldiers, as is also the case on the other side. – and summary proceedings. There is no freedom of expression, journalists are arrested and punished, women see their rights and freedoms restricted, including the obligation of a male “guardian” who ends up paralyzing the activities of humanitarian NGOs.

cautious optimism

About a year ago, timid attempts had emerged to consolidate the truce and alleviate the suffering of an exhausted population: in fact, the UN special envoy Hans Grundberg -in office since September 2021- had managed to get the parties to agree to a truce. of two months, renewed for one more period and followed by the start of negotiations. Added to this was the change in the government leadership, with the departure of President Abdu Rabbu Mansur Hadi, who was replaced, after ten years in government, by an eight-member council (PLC). However, the truce expired on October 2 and was never renewed, while the parties continued to fight and exchange mutual accusations over the failure of the negotiations.

in dialogue with PA, Grundberg himself praised the ongoing diplomatic efforts, in particular last weekend’s meeting between the Houthis and the Saudis (and Omanis). Since the war began, he said, it constitutes “the most significant progress” so far “for lasting peace.” “This is a time to seize,” added the senior UN official, “and a real opportunity to launch an inclusive political process with the backing of the United Nations and put a lasting end to the conflict.” Ahmed Nagi, an expert on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, confirmed that the “rapprochement” between Iran and Saudi Arabia “has given impetus to the negotiations” between Riyadh and the Houthis and that “both parties” are close to announcing a “renewal”. of the ceasefire. However, the expert continues, there are still issues to be resolved, such as the second part of the negotiations, in which “each party has different interpretations and expectations.” And, given the “complexity” of the situation, it is “difficult” to predict whether there will be “progress” in this regard.

At the moment the terms of a possible agreement between the parties are unknown. Although the details have not been disclosed, it is supposed to include the payment of the salaries of officials, the reopening of ports and airports, and more ambitious objectives, such as the reconstruction of the country. And once again, the departure of the foreign forces present in the territory and a political transition towards a new form of State – all points that, at least in the past, have been an insurmountable obstacle in the efforts for dialogue and peace. . It should be remembered that the Yemeni conflict is complicated by the presence of multiple actors involved, and the truth is that a genuine peace between the Houthis and the pro-Saudi government might not be enough to silence the guns and provide relief to an exhausted population. Other factions such as Al Qaeda, or the separatists of the south once supported by the United Arab Emirates, still have their own battles to fight and the dialogue opened by Tehran and Riyadh may not be enough to defuse the situation.

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