“turbulence”
“What we found is that the risks, once again, have weighed heavily on growth and largely due to the financial turmoil in recent weeks,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told a news conference. .
Despite everything, the IMF is revising its growth forecasts upwards this year for the United States, the world’s largest economy, to 1.6%, and 1.1% in 2024.
The euro zone improves to 0.8%, as does the United Kingdom, which will end the year in recession but at a better level than expected, with a contraction of 0.3%.
Germany is also exposed to falling into recession, while Spain fare better with expected growth of 1.5% in 2023 and 2% in 2024.
The economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow 1.6% this year and 2.2% in 2024.
By countries and economic areas, the financial organization forecasts growth for Brazil this year of 0.9%, Mexico 1.8%, Argentina 0.2%, Bolivia 1.8%, Colombia 1%, Ecuador 2.9%, Paraguay 4.5%, Peru 2.4%, Uruguay 2 % and Venezuela 5%. Central America will grow 3.8% and the Caribbean 9.9%.
Chile’s economy, meanwhile, will contract this year by 1%, says the Fund.
China falters
China acts as a global economic locomotive and its recovery alleviates problems in the supply chain. But its prospects are not buoyant either.
After abandoning the zero covid policy, the Chinese economy will grow 5.2% in 2023, but it will slow down from 2024 to 4.5%, a very low percentage for the country.
This scenario has led the IMF to change its mind since January: it no longer talks about a “soft landing”, with falling inflation and steady growth in the economy. Now he warns that inflation “is stubborn” and the situation of the financial sector adds uncertainty.
And there are more risks hanging around: “debt levels remain high”, an escalation of the war in Ukraine could send prices of raw materials skyrocketing again and “geopolitical tensions are high”, he concludes.
Information from AFP and EFE
