China displaces Taiwan in Latin America and gains greater influence

SAN SALVADOR – China’s influence in Latin America has almost entirely displaced Taiwan’s influence in the region: right now there are only four countries in the Americas that maintain bilateral relations with Taiwan, the island that China claims as part of its territory . The rest of the countries seem pleased with the commercial relationship and the investments in infrastructure built by the Asian “benefactor” in their countries: China.

The interest of the People’s Republic of China in the region has a purpose not yet dimensioned by Latin Americans, according to experts quoted by the voice of america, and the key word to understand those purposes is “war”. Meanwhile, the United States, which only monitors this growing influence, seems to have no plan that is not only at the discursive level, experts explain.

“The first thing to recognize is that we don’t have a plan right now. What we have are discussions, but not a plan. And this is a bigger problem. (…) We must rethink the importance of Latin America not only for the Western world but for the world in general”, explains Julio Guzmán, a member of the Reagan-Fascell Democracy, of the National Endowment for Democracy, at an event held by the Hudson Institute on the growing influence of China in Latin America.

The expert believes that a good part of the diplomacy in Washington does not understand that Latin American politics is not the same as it was three or four decades ago, and that now the “battle” against China is not economic but one of “values ​​and security of the hemisphere”, which can be gained by appealing to consciousness.

“The only thing that societies in Latin America are seeing from China are smartphones, the big bridges, the stadiums, the big structures built by the Chinese in their countries. They really do not know all the risks such as the practices and the cases of corruption”, adds Guzmán.

And it is that the US position against Chinese influence in Latin America has been vigilant, while keeping diplomatic relations with the Asian power on edge: the Taiwan issue, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the alleged spy balloons over the skies of China and American have paid to stress those relations.

On March 7, China, through its foreign minister, Qin Gang, said that if the United States “doesn’t step on the brakes” on its stance against China, “no amount of barriers will be able to prevent the derailment that is coming.” will turn into conflict.

Miles Yu, director of the China Center —an institution that evaluates the ideological, structural and military influence of that country—, believes that Latin America has a key role in this issue, since the region has served in recent years for China to “hyperventilate anti-American sentiment”; sometimes replicated by the leaders of the region.

“If we ever go to war with China, and the Chinese need to look at options to operate in the region, those relationships, as well as their commercial presence in the region, will be very important in the operation,” explains Evan Ellis, Research Professor. of Latin America at the Institute for Strategic Studies of the United States Army War College.

The modus operandi: money

Foreign direct investment from China in Latin America has grown in recent years from $15 million between 2005 and 2009 to over $79.8 million between 2015 and 2020, according to the LAC-China network monitor. The expert Evan Ellis goes further, and dares to ensure that foreign direct investment in the last 20 years already exceeds 173,000 million dollars, and that increased investment has not been China’s only economic strategy.

“China’s financial alliances in Latin America have made the Asian country the number one trading partner of almost all the countries in the region south of Costa Rica,” adds the expert.

Countries rich in energy resources such as Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador and Argentina have received up to 137,000 million dollars granted by the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank (Exim) of China until 2020.

“To maintain stability and survival in the region, you first have to create an economic and technological dependency. That is China’s main modus operandi these days. America is a market that provides a very rich extraction of resources”, adds the expert Miles Yu.

According to Yu, China’s approach to Latin America is one of “massive capital investment” aimed at replacing the role of dominant Western financial institutions, such as the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and even the International Monetary Fund. .

The next thing, warns the expert, will be for Latin America to play an important role “in China’s political and propaganda war and its global strategy.”

Experts maintain that China already has progress in terms of electrical connectivity, digital connectivity, and presence in the port sector of Latin America, a region that is going through “one of the worst moments, both economically and in terms of governance performance.” politics and respect for institutions”, according to Pedro Burelli, an expert at the consulting office B + V.

Another of China’s strategies in the region is “non-reimbursable cooperation.” Since 2020, China has paused lending to the region. Now grants cooperation of no return. In May 2021, China offered to build a stadium, a library, a water treatment plant, and a sanitation project in the coastal area of ​​El Salvador.

In Costa Rica, it also offered a non-reimbursable cooperation for $14 million dollars for the modernization of the National Stadium. And another $24 million dollars for social development projects.

United States, vigilant

China’s strategy in the region has not gone unnoticed by Washington. A State Department spokesperson told the voice of america that the United States is not opposed to Chinese investment in the region. However, it does “echo that the actions of the People’s Republic of China respect local laws and interests, particularly on human rights.”

“As President Joe Biden has made clear, the United States and China should also work together where it is in our interest to do so, such as on climate change, global health and food security. This is what the international community expects,” the spokesman said. .

Honduras has been the last country in Latin America to ally with China. Given the fact, the State Department considers that it is a “sovereign decision” of each country, but that the North American nation will continue to promote its long-standing “one China” policy, despite the fact that the United States established relations with China since 1978. , which have been endured with ups and downs.

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