Days of capsizing on the Russian side. This Thursday the offensives on Bakhmut and Avdivka, on the outskirts of the capital Donetsk, continued without any success. What seemed like a certainty two weeks ago is gradually fading over time: Russia is failing to advance. Neither tongs nor cauldrons. The Bakhmut fronts seem stabilized and there is no way to break the pressure in the south and try to gain ground towards Zaporizhia. Discouragement seems to spread among the pro-Russian agitators, to the point that there is already open talk of a Ukrainian counter-offensive and there is even speculation about its consequences.
The first to do so was, this Wednesday, the terrorist and war criminal, Igor Girkin. Girkin, protagonist for his brutality during the occupation of Crimea and one of those responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines commercial flight MH17 on July 17, 2014, in which 298 people died, has become one of the great critics of Putin and his special military operation. Perhaps because of his status as a war hero, he is not afraid of reprisals and puts black on white everything that Russian propaganda insists on denying.
According to Girkin, Ukraine would be preparing a counteroffensive for after Easter with two main operations (Guliaipole and Volnovaja in the direction of Mariupol) and several secondary ones that would consist of trying to cross to the left bank of the Dnieper. What would Ukraine want with this counteroffensive? Create a corridor from Zaporizhia to Mariupol that will break the unity of the Russian forces in two and prevent the transfer of troops, supplies and ammunition.
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Mariupol and Melitopol
This is an idea that has been around since Ukraine recaptured north of Kherson, with the Dnieper River as a natural border. In case of success, the road would be open to Mariupol, but also to Melitopol, the capital of the south occupied by the Russians. The symbolic and strategic importance of both cities is immense. Mariupol was visited by Vladimir Putin this week, the only conquered Ukrainian city that the Russian president has set foot on since the start of the “special military operation”.
Mariupol is not only a symbol for the resistance of Azvostal and the massacres that took place during its occupation, but its port is key to the control of commercial and military goods by the Sea of Azov. In fact, a good part of the troops and armored vehicles now fighting on the Vuhledar, Avdivka, Bakhmut, Kreminna or Kupiansk fronts landed in that port. Losing it would be a disaster for the Russian army.
Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky
Reuters
On the other hand, Melitopol is the only large city that Russia dominates in southern Ukraine after the loss of Kherson and it is not unreasonable to think that an offensive that reaches that point could threaten the Crimea, the jewel in the Russian crown in Ukraine. In fact, it would suffice create that corridor from Vasilivka to Berdiansk to turn Russian supply lines upside down and cause an immediate collapse. Strictly speaking, it could be that it would not be necessary to enter either of the two cities for them to end up surrendering and, in any case, the Crimean peninsula would be almost completely isolated, with the Kerch bridge as the only point of connection with the Russian Federation .
Prigozhin joins the notices
Obviously, we are talking about very ambitious plans, but the mere fact that Girkin warns of them coinciding with a halt in Russian offensive activity in Donbas is undoubtedly significant. Besides, he has not been the only terrorist to drop that something is up to the Ukrainians imminently. Eugeni Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Groupshared an explanatory video on social networks in which, with somewhat imprecise maps in front of him, he gave his own opinion on the future of the spring counteroffensive.
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According to Prigozhin, taking advantage of the good weather and the ease of the already dry land to let the NATO tanks roll, Ukraine would use two hundred thousand men to take the Belgorod region, in Russian territory and use it as a bargaining chip in possible negotiations. His intentions would not stop there: in addition, the army of Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Alexander Sirskyi would seek to break the Svatove-Kreminna front, recover what was lost in Bakhmut, create a corridor between the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Lugansk and Donetsk and, finally, attack Melitopol and Mariupol from Dnipro. Everything at once.
Honestly, Prigozhin’s plans seem crazy. Ukraine has not the slightest intention of entering Russian soil It wouldn’t even suit him in the slightest, since it would mean a violation of international law and he would lose a good part of his support. As for the rest of the objectives, to think that he can achieve them with 200,000 men, in short, he himself knows the extreme difficulty of what he is exposing.
Yevgueni Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, speaks in Paraskoviivka (Ukraine) on March 3.
The tension before the storm
Now, everyone knows that there is going to be an offensive and Sirskyi himself has had no problem making it explicit in a statement. In it, it is made clear that Bakhmut is still under Russian harassment, but the door is also open for the invader’s forces to end soon and the recovery of lost ground can begin. Perhaps in connection with this statement, a rumor arose this Thursday of a possible withdrawal of Wagner not only from Bakhmut, but from Donbas. The remaining troops would march back to Africa, where Prigozhin does much of his business. Such a decision would be considered a huge betrayal of Russia and Putin, so we must rule it out, at least out of the box.
And it is that there are times that optimism and euphoria play tricks. For example, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the city of Nova Kakhovka, on the other side of the Dnieper, in the Kherson region, was also rumored yesterday. If Nova Kajovka fell, it was plausible to think of a complete collapse of the Russian southern front. It was, however, a hoax: the only thing that had happened was a routine replacement of units, as the Russian high command clarified and the Ukrainian one later verified.
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Be that as it may, the counteroffensive is taking shape. The question is how far it will go and whether Ukraine will have enough men and weapons to carry it out successfully. Hardly any of the aid promised in January and February has arrived and perhaps the most sensible thing to do would be to wait, but Zaluzhnyi and Sirskyi are not friends with good sense and so far they have been doing wonderfully: after resisting and resisting for three long months , they do not want to pass up the opportunity to counterattack against an exhausted and seriously depleted enemy.
If it will be an offensive focused on a single axis or if they will look for a multiple attack on Kherson, Vasilivka, Guliaipole and even Kreminna, à la Prigozhin, will be determined by time and what Russia still has on hand to defend itself. Without a new mobilization, it doesn’t seem like much.
