What is the possible criminal charge against Donald Trump?

Life seems to go by as normal in the hectic city of New York. But some preparations by the authorities are beginning to attract attention. Barricades surrounding the headquarters of the Manhattan Prosecutor’s Office, cut off some of the city’s arteries and groups gathered in front of the Trump Organization building. Movements and clues that, for the first time in the country’s history, a former president could be formally charged in a criminal case.

The protagonist of the scene that lives in New York has his own name: Donald Trump. The Republican could be indicted by Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg, for an alleged payment by the mogul to porn star Stormy Daniels during her 2016 presidential campaign.

In the American city, the tension cannot be hidden since the weekend when Trump surprised by announcing that he would be “arrested” this Tuesday. Immediately afterwards, he called his followers to protest. Some statements that revived the fear of repeating scenes such as those of the capture of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, after similar calls from the magnate after assuring, without evidence, that the presidential elections had been fraudulent.

New York refuses to live the fear that spread through Washington. The city’s mayor, Eric Adams, stated that the police were monitoring social networks and keeping an eye on “inappropriate actions”.

But despite the different calls for calm – the New York Police Department said that there were no known credible threats – the city would be the place where Trump would have to go to have his fingerprints taken and other types of procedures that would result from being charged. Another scene in the best Hollywood style, to which the former president is more than accustomed and which would mark a new milestone in the political history of the United States.

A historical accusation

Never before has a former president or president of the United States been formally charged in a criminal proceeding. Bragg has on his hands what could be the first criminal case against a former president.

ANDhe US Department of Justice prohibits federal impeachment of an incumbent president. But the case of a former president is different. Two years away from the White House leave Trump without that “legal shield”, as he claims ‘The Washington Post’ (WP).

The outlet claims that “the decision to indict former President Donald Trump for secret money payments made on his behalf during his 2016 presidential campaign rests with a Manhattan grand jury that has been secretly hearing evidence for weeks.”

In addition to its historical nature, the accusation would come at a tense moment for the Republican leader. Trump has claimed that he wants to run for president for the 2024 elections and is facing multiple investigations against him.

The Department of Justice is investigating the case of Mar-a-Lago, the former president’s mansion in Florida, where he allegedly retained government documents. In parallel, Trump is being investigated for his responsibility in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

In addition, a special jury in Georgia suggests that Trump may have interfered in the 2020 state elections.

Despite the ongoing investigations, everything seems to indicate that it will be the Manhattan prosecutor who will set the first precedent of this style in the country’s history.

What would Trump be accused of?

Bragg would accuse Trump of a crime related to his payment of $130,000 to pornographic film actress Stormy Daniels just before the 2016 elections. A transaction that would have sought to protect the image of the then presidential candidate and cover up an alleged extramarital affair.

At the center of the issue is his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, who was in charge of sending Daniels’ money. In 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty to federal campaign finance violations and admitted that he helped arrange the transaction.

As highlighted ‘The New York Times‘ (NYT)― quoting Cohen’s court file —, the Trump Organization reimbursed the professional an amount “over the course of 2017.”

The outlet claims that “Trump’s business hid the true purpose of the payments, according to the document, by recording them as if they were for a legal advance that did not exist.”

He adds: “A conviction likely hinges on prosecutors showing that Trump reimbursed Cohen and falsified business records when he did so, possibly to conceal an election law violation.”

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What charges could fall on the former president?

The specific charges that would fall on Trump remain to be seen. According to ‘The Washington Post’, “they would involve the alleged falsification of business records, which stems from Trump listing his reimbursements to Cohen as ‘legal expenses.'”

Information that seems to coincide with the ‘times’. “The case may include a possible charge of falsifying business records under the New York Penal Law Section 175. A conviction for a felony version of accounting fraud carries a sentence of up to four years.

In order for him to be charged with this crime, prosecutors must show that Trump knowingly acted so that “his subordinates made a false entry in his company records ‘with the intent to defraud,'” adds ‘NYT’.

Now, the case could go further. The Manhattan Prosecutor’s Office would be seeking to charge the former president with a serious crime and not a minor one; for which they need to prove that the former president falsified business records with the intention of committing another crime.

That second crime, as shown by ‘WP’―referring to an analysis of ‘Just Security‘― could be linked tothe federal campaign finance violation established by Cohen.”

It remains to be seen, says the outlet, “if New York law allows the related crime to be federal or if it has to violate a state law.”

More details on the Daniels case

The link between Stephanie Gregory, the birth name of Daniels, and former President Trump, goes back years. The first documented encounters between the two occurred in 2006 at a golf tournament in Nevada.

Daniels, then 27, and Trump, 60, were photographed at the location, as revealed ‘Wicked Pictures‘.

Furthermore, as the NYT recounts, “they saw each other at least twice more in 2007, at a short-lived Trump Vodka launch party and at the Beverly Hills Hotel.”

Following that series of meetings, Daniels repeatedly sought to sell his story to various media outlets, even before Trump launched into the presidential race for which he was elected to the White House.

However, the most complex point came just in 2016. In October of that year, ‘WP’ published the video known as ‘Access Hollywood’ that caused one of the strongest media storms and a wave of criticism that touched the former president.

As ‘NYT’ documented, “those around Stormy Daniels immediately realized that Trump’s newfound vulnerability made her a greater threat and thus brought value to her story”.

So Cohen walked on the scene and three days after the tape’s release agreed to pay $130,000 to Daniels. A payment that would not materialize until some time later.

This would be made effective by Cohen himself, as evidenced by some text messages from the lawyer with Daniels’ representative. “I hope we are well,” marked one of them.

Why is the case so controversial?

The Daniels case has divided the opinion of Trump’s supporters and detractors. For many of the latter, this is the least notorious and relevant case of which the former president is being accused. And, they say, it would delegitimize larger investigations such as the one in Mar-a-Lago.

Among the Republican Party there have also been mixed reactions, especially to Trump’s calls for demonstrations in case he is impeached. While three Republican committee chairmen asked prosecutor Bragg for details about the investigation, others were more distant.

Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida and one of Trump’s possible contenders in the 2024 Republican primary, questioned the political motives of the Manhattan prosecutor, but added: “I don’t know what it means to pay hush money to a star.” porn to ensure silence about some kind of alleged affair.”

A statement that drew the ire of Trump, who said he will learn of the false accusations “as he gets older, wiser and better known.”

For his part, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, played down the possible demonstrations. “I don’t think people should protest this,” he said.

How does the case affect Trump’s political ends?

Beyond the legal spectrum, the political plot about the case is also yet to be known. Political analysts have conflicting versions about how this case could harm or, on the contrary, improve Trump’s image with a view to his goal of returning to the White House.

“I think this will strengthen the resolve of his supporters,” Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who represented Trump, told Reuters.

In that case, it would be a great help for the Republican who must broaden his electoral support.

However, Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, sentenced: “It is not good for Trump, the question is how bad it is.”

For his part, Trump, who had kept a lower profile in recent months, has returned to his incendiary speech of the past while the Manhattan prosecutor removes the veil from the possible prosecution.

With local media, Reuters and AP