LEBANON Prime Minister Mikati’s obstacle course in government formation

Parliament appointed the outgoing Prime Minister, who received 54 votes (out of a total of 128). The main rival, Nawaf Salam, could not exceed 25 votes. The reform plan that the country must adopt and the risk of a vacant presidential seat. The power games between the Christian parties and the appeal of Patriarch Raï.

Beirut () – Yesterday, the outgoing Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, was appointed to form a new government, more than a month after the elections, which culminated in a Parliament without a clear majority. Mikati obtained the majority of the votes of the deputies present (54, out of a total of 128). However, the number of votes received was less than a simple majority of 65. His main rival, Nawaf Salam, a former UN ambassador and a personality little known to the general public, failed to exceed 25 votes. It should be noted that the consolidation of Mikati has also been favored by the “neutral position” of the international community and Saudi Arabia, which have not put obstacles in its way.

The task that lies ahead for Mikati will be easy and difficult at the same time. Easy, because he has the opportunity to “play at two tables” and, while waiting to form a new government, he will continue to be in charge of current affairs in the role of interim prime minister. Master of balances, Mikati could rely on this factor against the demands of the different parliamentary blocs.

However, the formation of a new government promises to be a complex task: there are still four months to go until President Michel Aoun’s term ends, which expires on October 31. In the absence of a clear parliamentary majority, at the end of the mandate, the country could be left with the position of head of state vacant. If this is the case, the Constitution establishes that the Council of Ministers must assume the presidential prerogatives. And it is clear that this could create a short circuit.

Without anticipating too much and speculating about the coming months, we know that the acting Prime Minister will dedicate the two days of June 27 and 28 to meetings with the various parliamentary groups, in view of the composition of the new executive cabinet. Knowing that some of the current figures could be confirmed in their respective roles.

The tasks of the next executive

It goes without saying that Mikati will devote himself, with the next executive, to the arduous – and for some impossible – task that has been dragging on for months: getting the long-awaited reforms approved. With them, it is intended to stop the deep financial crisis that has plunged the majority of Lebanese into a situation of serious poverty.

We know that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) already announced in April, under your government, an agreement in principle for an aid plan of almost three billion euros, to get Lebanon out of the crisis. One of its first acts will be the closing of this agreement, which will require a strong commitment to implement the ambitious reforms needed to address, in particular, the restructuring of the financial and banking sector, as well as the fight against corruption.

The energy issue, which is part of the country’s recovery plan, will also be one of the obstacles to the formation of the new government. In this matter, Mikati’s main adversary is the Free Patriotic Movement (CLP), founded by the head of state and now led by his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil. On energy matters, relations between the acting prime minister and the CPL are tumultuous. Proof of this is the war of communications that broke out at the end of May with the Minister of Energy and Water, Walid Fayad, close to the exponents of Aoun.

Mikati accuses Fayad of delaying the evaluation of an offer for electricity production presented by Siemens and General Electric. Facing the formation of the new government, the current aounist insists more than ever on maintaining the energy portfolio. He wants the reform plans to include the construction of a power plant – considered superfluous – on the coast, in Batroun, his electoral stronghold. In addition, for its participation, the CPL sets as a condition the dismissal of the governor of the Central Bank, Riad Salamé, and that the catastrophic explosion of August 4, 2020 in the port of Beirut continue to be investigated. These are two hot and difficult dossiers, for which, without a doubt, it is not enough to press a button.

Mikati isn’t the only one who fears the CPL’s lawsuits. Patriarch Beshara Raï also shares these concerns: he takes into account that the absence of a clear majority in Parliament could lead to a vacant presidential seat. Therefore, in case of a impassethe Maronite primate invited the Christian political parties, and in particular the Lebanese Forces (19 seats in Parliament, compared to 17 for the CPL) to join the government team.

Through the mouth of its leader Samir Geagea, the Lebanese Forces – who pointed to Mikati in the last parliamentary consultations – said that they are not interested in being part of a “national unity” government, which they only consider an “executive of stagnation and paralysis “. In this context, Patriarch Raï fears that the CPL enjoys an almost exclusive monopoly on Christian representation, knowing that this current is also Hezbollah’s main Christian ally. The same movement against which the cardinal has been campaigning for months. The cardinal seeks to obtain the proclamation of an international conference sponsored by the United Nations, whose central theme is the neutrality of Lebanon.