Ukraine doubts an attack from Transnistria but places “an adequate number of soldiers” on the border

If this same Monday, deep concern was officially expressed from Moscow about the possible intervention of the Ukrainian army in the Moldovan region -extreme that has been directly denied by Kiev in a statement: “Ukraine considers Transnistria as part of Moldova and has no interest in entering into conflict over said region”, the latest news on Tuesday points to a new controversy. Apparently, according to a former military inspector of the Moldovan Ministry of Defense, the pro-Russian militias have filled all the weapons depots in the region with high explosive charges.

The aim would be to cause a tremendous explosion that would cause “irreparable damage” both in Moldova, in Ukraine and in Transnistria itself in case the Ukrainian army dared to cross the border. Even the formulation itself is reminiscent of the typical rhetorical threats of the Russian side. First of all, arms depots, like Cobasna’s, the largest of all, are built in bunkers, and they are precisely because these types of explosions are an ever-present possibility without the need to force things. The depth of such bunkers would cushion the effects of any explosion.

Second, even if such an explosion did manage to reach the surface and do some significant damage, it would do so almost exclusively in Transnitria itself. It would hardly affect Moldova – it is not easy to see how – and certainly not Ukraine. Yes, ironically, to the pro-Russian militias and to whatever detachments Putin may have sent there over the years, if there are any left who have not crossed the border to join the war on the southern front. Now, we insist, the important thing is that Ukraine is not going to enter Transnistria. Nothing has been lost there and there is no reason to voluntarily open a third combat front.

Russian troops to Transnistria?

Another thing is the acts of looting. It is rumored that, especially in Cobasna, there may have been incursions by militias sent from across the border to steal weapons and ammunition. How far this looting goes is impossible to determine, but it does not seem to justify a “If you keep doing this, we’ll all blow ourselves up”, as much as, it must be insisted, fits perfectly with the Russian apocalyptic rhetoric. In fact, it all seems like the typical hyperbole intended to send a really very small message: “Stop stealing our kalashnikovs, we’ve noticed.”

From the Ukraine, all this somewhat forced escalation is attended with a certain perplexity, although after a year they are already used to the drama. Beyond the Kiev statement, respecting the international legality by which Transnistria is part of Moldova, and repeating its null interest in that limited strip of land, the head of the press center of the Southern Defense Forces, Natalia Gumenyukaffirmed this Tuesday that he sees it as very unlikely that the Russians will use that border to organize a “false flag” attack, something that the American Institute for the Study of War I didn’t see that far last Friday.

[Un año y cien mil muertos después, Putin no sabe cómo salir de una guerra que debía durar 3 días]

The reasons why Gumeniuk practically rules out Russian intervention are mainly geographical. Even if they staged a fake attack, blamed Ukraine for it, and promised help to their “Transnistrian brothers”, how would the Russian leadership send troops into the area? We know, because the UN General Assembly denounced it in 2018, that for years there are Russian combat units in the regionmainly to train local militias and as a deterrent against an attempted military annexation by Moldova.

An appropriate reinforcement

Now, with those troops, if they are still there, it would not be enough to even try to get a hundred meters into the Ukraine. They need to send larger contingents. How do they plan to do it? Gumeniuk wonders. Transnistria is a narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine, with no access even to the Black Sea. The only way to send soldiers and weapons would be by air, and to do so they would have to systematically violate Ukrainian or Moldovan airspace. In the first case, Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses would kill off any resupply attempts and in the second, it would be impossible to cross Moldova without first passing through Romania, a NATO country. And that is big words for so little space of land.

That said, Gumeniuk does not rule out that something could happen at the border. At this point, it is difficult to rule out anything. Just in case, he said, the defense ministry has decided to “adequately” strengthen the border with Transnistria. Without specifying the number of men assigned to this function, the spokeswoman limited herself to saying that it was “appropriate for the threat.” If we take into account that the threat is not considered very credible, we are probably talking about a very limited number.

The exact words with which Gumeniuk referred to the possible opening of new fronts not only in Transnistria, but also in Belarus, were “hypothetical threat”. “They are possible under a certain set of circumstances, but they are not likely to happen,” he explained, referring to false flag attacks on Ukraine’s northeastern and southeastern borders. Much ado about nothing, in short. The keynote of pro-Russian propaganda in recent months. kyiv will do well not to take certain baits.

[China abre una vía para la paz: se postula como mediador entre Rusia y Ucrania con sus 12 puntos]