SOUTHEAST ASIA Prices rise, but for Southeast Asia the war in Ukraine is still a long way off

With the exception of Singapore, the only nation in the region that has imposed sanctions on Russia, most Asian countries do not want to take sides. The biggest concerns are related to the rising cost of raw materials. Several states maintain relations with Moscow, partly due to the influence of Beijing’s amplified propaganda campaigns.

Milan () – In Southeast Asia, a year ago, when Russia’s “special military operation” was announced, it was believed that the invasion of Ukraine would turn into a blitzkrieg similar to the occupation of Crimea in 2014. Instead , the consequences of the conflict continue to be felt: the inhabitants of the region complain about the increase in the price of food and basic necessities, but at the same time they perceive the conflict as a distant event that concerns the United States, Russia and NATO and with which the nations in the area have nothing to do.

This is the ambivalent opinion expressed by citizens in various surveys and by experts and diplomats consulted by the South China Morning Post. Although the general opinion is that Moscow violated international law with its offensive, support for Ukraine is less clear than in European countries, precisely because of the perceived remoteness of the conflict, and this opinion has practically not changed since February 24, 2022, when the fighting began.

In Malaysia, 54% of respondents to an Ipsos poll believe that “Ukraine’s problems are none of our business and we should not interfere.” 60% of respondents in Thailand, 44% in Singapore and 48% in Indonesia agree with these statements. Support for sanctions is very strong in Sweden, Poland and the UK (some of the Western countries included in the survey), but does not exceed the 50% threshold in Singapore (the only country in the region to impose sanctions on Russia). , Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Asian citizens’ concern about the conflict also varies considerably: according to a survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, in Laos only 14% of those surveyed said they were very concerned about the war, compared to 71.7% in the Philippines and the 61.2% in Indonesia.

Over the course of a year, the region witnessed the full spectrum of political reactions to the conflict, not least because of the different relationships Southeast Asian countries have with Moscow. Singapore condemned the offensive, Cambodia was “very critical”, while Myanmar’s military regime approved of Vladimir Putin’s actions. Thailand and Malaysia have taken a neutral stance, while Indonesia, Vietnam and Laos do not want to harm their relations with Russia, which are often historical and linked to arms supplies, as Ian Storey of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute pointed out. According to data from the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Research, between 1995 and 2021 Russia sold $7.4 billion worth of weapons to Vietnam and $1.7 billion to Burma between 2001 and 2021. While Hanoi tries to diversify its supply The Burmese coup junta, by contrast, has increased its cooperation with Moscow, buying fighter jets and military helicopters to quell resistance forces.

“As is the case with US-China relations, most Southeast Asian countries want to maintain good relations with both the US and Russia, avoid becoming embroiled in rivalries and maintain their strategic autonomy,” Storey said. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., for example, told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Manila supports Ukraine’s efforts to find a peaceful solution to the war, but refrained from sending military aid to avoid taking sides with the United States (an ally of Ukraine) and China (perceived as an ally of Russia).

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has tried to play a leading role in mediating the conflict, but without explicitly condemning the Russian aggression. According to Zachary Abuza, a professor of strategic security at the National War College in Washington, President Jokowi’s goal is to ensure a constant supply of grain and the purchase of oil at a good price. The rise in the cost of raw materials, in a context in which inflation remains high, is of some importance in countries where elections are scheduled to be held this year, especially in Thailand and Cambodia, Abuza further noted, while in Myanmar The coup junta has announced a vote in August, but it is not yet clear how it will take place.

The World Bank predicts that the conflict will cause a 50% increase in energy prices worldwide, while the cost of food will rise 20% by 2023.

At the moment, it is difficult to predict if and how Southeast Asia’s position on the war in Ukraine will change. Public opinion continues to be influenced by pro-Russian propaganda, often promoted by the Chinese media, that Ukraine hosts US-funded neo-Nazi infiltrations and bio-labs. But some conspiracy theories are indigenous, Storey further said, especially in Muslim-majority countries like Indonesia and Malaysia, where some criticize the hypocrisy of the United States (which invaded Iraq and Afghanistan in the early 2000s). According to Storey, these nations “view the Putin regime as pro-Islamic and the United States as hostile” and tend to believe Russian propaganda thanks to the region’s greater familiarity with Moscow rather than Kiev.