RUSSIA Moscow rethinks who its ‘friends’ are in the post-Soviet world

Changes brought about by the war in Ukraine. kyiv remains enemy number one, Belarus is the country with the best relations. Kazakhstan fluctuates and arouses more and more suspicion in the Kremlin. Stable, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Improve understanding with Georgia.

Moscow () – After a year of war in Ukraine, it is important for Russia to rethink the classification of “friendly” and “hostile” countries. For example, Kazakhstan is classified as “fluctuating”, equidistant from the two sides of the board. A think tank very close to the Kremlin, the National Institute for Research on the Development of Communication (NIIRK), was commissioned to classify these positions and published the corresponding data for the 14 ex-Soviet countries that share a border with Russia.

What is analyzed is the level of “friendship” (družestvennost) of those who at the time considered themselves “allies” or “brothers” of Moscow, evaluating the consequences of the bloody invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent reactions of these countries. At the head of the ranking is, naturally, loyal Belarus, and of course “Nazified” Ukraine is at the bottom.

The other positions in the table are less obvious; It is surprising that Georgia, with which Russia fought between 2008 and 2011, is now defined as “relatively friendly” from Moscow’s point of view. Kazakhstan, which at the beginning of last year was considered the friendliest country, is now in the middle of the ranking.

The NIIRK states that its mission is “the development of a multipolar dialogue between peoples, cultures, religions, states and scientific and academic organizations of civil society, to consolidate peace and harmony.” The institute explains that the research considers 10 different models of communication between Russia and neighboring countries, with 60 reference data ranging from “foreign policy communication” to “information media” and academic and educational fields, with particular attention to the “policies of neighboring countries regarding Russian-speaking minorities”.

This year’s studies show a “polarization between friendly and unfriendly communication of the various regimes.” If in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania “the conditions for the development of communication have worsened to the point of prohibiting it”, in other traditionally friendly areas, such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which “before were quite reticent”, today the Conditions have greatly improved, says the NIIRK.

Estonia’s friendship with Russia plummeted from -10.7 in 2021 to -51.8 the following year, when Prime Minister Kaja Kallas became one of the most critical figures in the Russian invasion of Europe, going as far as the mutual expulsion of ambassadors. Ukraine was already at -43.8 before the invasion, although it was “friendlier” than Latvia anyway, and now it is at -83.6. Kazakhstan has refused to follow the lead of Belarus, which backs Moscow’s military operations, and is now in the most indefinite condition.

The initiative of Kazakh businessmen last month, who erected a “yurt” tent in Bucha for humanitarian aid, has soured diplomatic relations between Moscow and Astana. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has tried to get the Kazakh government to distance itself, “so as not to affect the strategic partnership and collaboration between our countries.” The Russian “censorship” agency Roskomnadzor continually attacks the media in neighboring countries, calling for the removal of all war material critical of Moscow. The Kazakh website Arbat.media was even sued by the Vladimir court.

According to the NIIRK, Kazakhstan remains a friendly country, but the “inertia of positive feelings” in Astana’s relations with Moscow can no longer be relied on. The group recommends “making efforts and imagining special projects and communication development programs” between the two countries, so as not to lose the historic camaraderie. Actually, “special projects” refer to greater control over the media: in countries less free in this field, such as Turkmenistan (+47.1), Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the friendship with Russia is much greater.