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The increase in tensions between China and the United States is one of the topics of the Munich Security Conference this Friday attended by, among others, presidents Zelensky, Scholz and Macron. RFI interviewed Evan Ellis, a professor at the US Army War College’s Institute for Strategic Studies, who specializes in China.
R.F.I. How much has the balloon incident affected diplomatic relations between the United States and China?
Relations were already strained. Remember that Beijing gave a very aggressive response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, when she was Speaker of the House of Representatives (August 2022). Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping intended to restore communication channels and ease those tensions. Blinken had been sent for that purpose (but the meeting was cancelled). This is why I consider China’s balloon action to be not only unfortunate but obviously deliberate. In reality, all it does is postpone the resolution of the crisis.
R.F.I. What can happen?
What is coming is uncertain. The protest made by the Chinese government seemed naive to me. But, at the same time, it opens up a strategic option for Beijing. Along these lines: If US surveillance planes fly over disputed territory, for example, heavily claimed airspace in the South China Sea or East China Sea, and China decides to shoot down those planes transiting through that neutral airspace, Beijing could claim it reserves the right to do so because the United States shot down its balloon. They could say that the United States has already committed a violation. That is why I do not rule out the possibility of an escalation.
R.F.I. But what could be Beijing’s intentions?
It is very difficult to understand this Chinese action. It could be interpreted as an attempt, as part of a broader campaign by Beijing to increase pressure on Washington, to test certain responses by the United States in a preliminary escalation and, in this way, move towards forcing a solution that works out well. the sense of wresting its sovereignty from Taiwan.
But, beyond its inexplicable nature, what worries me is the possibility that the Chinese provocation, added to the shift towards a possible diplomatic alliance agreement between Russia and China, added to other actions, for example, the inexplicable deployment by of the unusually vulnerable Iranian warships in the vicinity of the Panama Canal, what worries me, I say, is that all this could represent a series of coordinated actions whose purpose is to distract the United States or complicate its decision-making.
We are in the field of speculation, but the situation is very tense. Xi Jinping has openly expressed his desire to resolve Taiwan’s independence before the end of his third term. So, instead of being a temporary continuation of hostilities or unfortunate diplomatic friction, it should not be ruled out that we could be facing something larger. But this remains to be seen. I think it will become clear in the next few weeks.
