For experts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, this is a “reasonable estimate”. Growth prospects were also reviewed. Health authorities on alert for possible epidemics related to the lack or contamination of water. The authorities continue the repression on the Internet with arrests, censorship and closure of websites critical of the post-earthquake situation and the resistance of buildings.
Istanbul () – The devastating earthquake on February 6 could have serious repercussions on the Turkish economy, which is already going through a difficult situation combined with high inflation, which could cause losses of up to 1% of gross domestic product in 2023. In a report published today, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) gives an account of the costs, not only in human lives, of the worst natural disaster in the country’s modern history. The institute’s experts added that this is a “reasonable estimate” when compared with the anticipated increase in reconstruction efforts, which will offset the negative impact on infrastructure and supply chains.
“The earthquake,” he explains to Reuters Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the EBRD, “It hit agricultural areas and areas where there is light manufacturing to a large extent, so contagion to other sectors is limited. However, millions of displaced people remain in need of humanitarian aid. in Turkey and in neighboring Syria, in addition to the more than 41,000 deaths, as well as a large part of the survivors who were left homeless in the middle of winter and with very low temperatures in the area.
The growth prospects for Ankara in 2023 were also revised, which went from 3.5% to a more moderate 3%, without taking into account -for the moment- the impact of the earthquake on the estimates. The bank added that the growing needs for foreign financing and the internal political uncertainty associated with the elections of May 14, 2023 -now in doubt, with controversy between government supporters and opponents over its postponement- create significant economic vulnerabilities. “As the depreciation of the Turkish lira since 2015 outpaces inflation, exports have grown rapidly benefiting from low costs.”
Meanwhile, the Turkish health authorities are raising the alarm about the damage suffered by health facilities and the risk of epidemics due to lack of water or its contamination. In the city of Kahramanmaras, one of the hardest hit by the quake, a doctor at a clinic – the only one active and receiving up to 10,000 patients a day – is dispensing free tetanus shots to those who request it, in addition to distributing kits hygiene, since it is not possible to wash in the traditional way or take a shower. The health alert is also shared by the experts of the World Health Organization who, through the mouth of the WHO representative in Turkey, Batyr Berdyklychev, asked to maintain the maximum alert. According to him, there is an “increased risk of waterborne diseases and outbreaks of communicable diseases”, as well as seasonal flu and Covid among the displaced.
Lastly, on the security front, the police continue to persecute and arrest those who -according to the official version of the authorities- create panic and fear among the population by sharing “provocative messages” about the earthquake. The latest estimate speaks of at least 78 arrests and of increasing control of the network by Ankara, which intends to block any form of criticism that could undermine the image – and the electoral consensus – of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The General Security Directorate reported that it had identified 613 people accused of posting provocative messages and that it had initiated legal proceedings against 293 of them. In addition, 46 websites were closed for promoting scams and identity theft, with the aim of diverting money destined for earthquake victims, and 15 social pages posing as official institutions.
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