Ukraine is not winning and Russia will make great strides soon

On what does the colonel base his discouragement? From the outset, in the assumption -something debatable and hardly verifiable- that Putin has learned from his mistakes. By itself, that’s not a great reason, since we don’t know if it’s true or not. Kemp cites Ukrainian fighters on the Donbas front, but does not specify what exact changes will be made to avoid the disappointing results of the first major offensive in February 2022. He alludes to the change in the leadership of the army, with the arrival of Gerasimov replacing Surovikin, but after all, this is still the third change that Putin has made since the start of the war… and the two previous ones did not imply any substantial change in his favor.

However, Kemp may be right.. In the last hours, we have learned something that seems to indicate a change in the Russian approach: the tycoon Eugeni Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Group, lamented that the Kremlin no longer allowed him to recruit new mercenaries in Russian prisons. It is one more step in the inevitable downfall of a paramilitary group notorious for its cruelty, but tremendously ineffective in its performance, which is natural when harboring criminals who are undisciplined and often with no prior military experience.

[Zelenski ante la Eurocámara: “Sólo nuestra victoria garantizará el modo de vida europeo”]

Be that as it may, this step makes it clear that Gerasimov is fed up with Prigozhin hanging himself media medals… and that the Russian defense ministry claims that future victories can only be blamed on its regular army. The highly qualified advances in Bakhmut and Volehdar could only be the prelude to a huge offensive to begin before Western weapons reach the front, a kind of “now or never” that Putin could consider before even ending the mobilization of half a million soldiers recently announced by the Ukrainian foreign minister.

victory by crush

Precisely the number of troops is another of the reasons that Kemp points out to justify his prediction. According to the British colonel, Russia has only followed a tactic of attrition. They tried blitzkrieg and, once that attempt failed, the rest has been a mere wait for the next opportunity. The withdrawals would have been tactical, in order to strengthen their positions for a future attack. The number of casualties would simply be a way of increasing the enemy’s as well.

[Las ‘alas para la libertad’ de Zelenski no volarán hasta 2027: su gira europea se complica]

According to Kemp -and that matches what we are seeing in this and other conflicts- Russia does not mind sending as many men as necessary to the slaughterhouse. They have that demographic superiority and that lack of scruples as one of their great advantages. They intuit that, sooner or later, the Ukraine will not be able to send more men or, of course, not so prepared. He’s probably right, but it should be noted that Kemp’s numbers appear to be inflated. In his article, he talks about 120,000 deaths per side, something that he does not agree with what we know.

Although it is very difficult to determine the exact number of deaths in this conflict, thinking of 50,000 per side would already be a bit of an exaggeration. Another thing is the number of casualties, counting not only dead, but also seriously wounded, captured and deserters. There, yes, the figure that Kemp gives may be correct. In any case, it should not be forgotten that the Ukrainian army is the second largest in Europe in number of reservists and that the country has been in permanent mobilization since February 24. If Putin can send half a million men to the front, Zelensky shouldn’t have such a hard time finding a similar number. Another thing is the price that the social fabric of the country pays for it.

Protect Sloviansk and Kramatorsk

The forcefulness with which Kemp expresses himself shocks the article. Talk about the need to prepare for “a hard knock” and to “get real”. He denies that Ukraine is winning the war, alluding precisely to the high number of casualties it is suffering -an argument that is a bit farfetched- and, as we said before, he urges the West to do something as soon as possible. The promised weapons, as we know, will not arrive until spring, summer, or even beyond. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians will have to fend for themselves with what is left of their previous shipments, which, in any case, is quite a bit more than they had a year ago.

Although the colonel speaks of enormous advances –”surprising” is the adjective he uses-, he does not quite specify where he expects them. It is understood that in the Donbas, but we do not know what its exact scope would be. In the last few hours, in addition to the continuous shelling of Ukrainian positions in Donetsk, there has been an offensive attempt from Kreminna, in Lugansk. Obviously, the idea is to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk core on all sides, which gloriously withstood last spring’s attack, but the loss of which would be devastating for Ukraine.

[Rusia elige Mariúpol para reunir las tropas de la nueva ofensiva y así poder nutrir los dos frentes]

Can Zelensky’s army successfully defend such a core? We just don’t have enough information to think otherwise. As much as there is talk of large human mobilizations -necessarily lacking the necessary training-, the Russia’s problems to advance in almost symbolic cities like Bakhmut they continue to make it difficult to think that they can take the two emblematic cities of Ukrainian Donbas so easily. We also do not know if they will go for a violent attack or if they will continue their attrition tactic. Let us remember that time is now running in your favor, but it will soon run against you. As soon as spring arrives and with it the western aid packages. If, by then, Ukraine has managed to defend its positions, a new counteroffensive may be considered.

Filed under War in Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Volodimir Zelensky