‘A failure of Beijing’s demographic policy’

First modification: 18/01/2023 – 14:31

By Nicolas Feldman

RFI: China experienced a decline in its population in 2022, how do you explain this phenomenon?

Isabelle Attane: Since Xi Jinping came to power, the demographic statistics published by China have become less and less frequent. But we do have data on the total population. We can see that the Chinese population is in historic decline, with 850,000 fewer people between 2021 and 2022. The global fertility rate, that is, the average number of children per woman, has fallen to around 1.15 children per woman in 2022, a historically low level.

There are several reasons for this. Young Chinese are less likely to get married: they want to enjoy life more, develop professionally and tend to marry later and later. Today, the Chinese State does not offer all the conditions for these young people to facilitate the articulation between professional life and family life. In addition, social and economic instability does not encourage couples to undertake more ambitious family projects.

Was this negative demographic growth foreseeable?

Yes, but China did not foresee it already this year; I thought that the phenomenon would occur around 2030. The reduction in the number of births is a trend that has been maintained for 15 years. In 2022, China registered less than ten million births, half the number of 20 years ago. For this to be reversed, there would have to be a birth explosion, which is highly unlikely.

In 2016, the Chinese government began to relax the one-child policy, and since summer 2021, couples have been allowed to have three children. These measures have not had the desired effect, as they take time to bear fruit. The government also tries to minimize the costs associated with a child in terms of education and healthcare. For example, it plans to expand nurseries for young children, but this is not enough.

With the Chinese population dwindling, what are the possible consequences for the economy?

China’s three to four decades of strong economic growth – from the 1980s to the late 2000s – were largely driven by a steady increase in the number of working-age people, which provided the Chinese economy with great relatively cheap labor for companies.

Since the early 2010s, the proportion of the Chinese population of working age has been declining year by year. This is a real problem for China, which is beginning to run out of labor in some sectors. This becomes more expensive, so China loses competitiveness in the sectors of activity that have allowed its growth and its opening to the world. This is where the challenge lies. You have to know that between 2000 and 2050, China will lose between 200 and 250 million people of working age. This is considerable.

How can you compensate for this lack of active people?

China is starting to legislate on immigration, but is currently moving more in the direction of selective immigration. It tries to encourage highly qualified people to settle in the country. There is also a fairly strong return policy in place to bring back Chinese students who have studied abroad and are working. As for the immigration of foreign population from neighboring countries, for the moment there is no political display in this regard.

In addition, the task is colossal. Imagine that, to make up for the entire decline in the Chinese workforce by 2050, 200 billion people would have to immigrate to China, which is roughly equivalent to the workforce of Indonesia and Vietnam combined.

Could this inversion of the demographic curve have consequences for the Communist Party?

This is a failure of China’s demographic policy. The challenge will be to reactivate births and preserve some credibility in the eyes of the population. One thing is certain: a movement has emerged in China, especially among young women, to denounce the exploitation of women. They are moving on from the one-child policy, where they were required to have few or no children, only to be made to feel guilty the next day because they don’t want any more. There is a protest movement and these incentives to have children are not always well received by young Chinese.