Chinese population declines for first time in 60 years

First modification: 01/17/2023 – 09:33

With Stéphane Lagarde, RFI correspondent in Beijing

For the first time in six decades, deaths exceed births in China. In 2022, there were 1.41 billion Chinese people in the country’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and provincial cities, representing a negative growth rate of 0.6 per 1,000.

Demographers haven’t seen anything like this since 1961. A definite decline? Maybe not, but this trend is here to stay. After couples were allowed to have a second and then a third child, despite birth aid, the development of nurseries, the extension of maternity and even paternity leave in some companies, and campaigns to discourage abortions, the birth rate continued to decline.

According to the National Statistics Office, last year there were 6.77 births per 1,000 inhabitants. Again, this is a level not seen since 1949. At this rate, China’s population pyramid will soon resemble a nuclear mushroom, like that of its South Korean and Japanese neighbors, with the associated problems of population aging and loss of active people to finance pensions and, above all, to care for elderly parents.

cost of living

The end of the one-child policy came late in a China where the cost of education and housing was already high. This morning, the comments on the Weibo social network did not seem surprised by the announcement: “It is so normal that the population decreases,” wrote one user. Who wants to have children? Today is a burden.”

The increase in youth unemployment since the start of the pandemic is not helping. Neither does the weight of family traditions. The Lunar New Year holidays and family reunions, which begin this weekend, are dreaded by single Chinese women, plagued by questions: “When do you get married? When do you have children?” Emancipated young women no longer want to bear the burden of their children alone in an economic context held back by three years of “Covid-19 zero” policy.

The economy, also in the doldrums

China’s economy grew 3% in 2022, one of the lowest levels in the last 40 years, due to the covid-19 pandemic and the crisis in the real estate sector, according to official figures released on Tuesday.

Beijing had set a goal of 5.5% expansion for last year, lower than the level of 2021, when the Asian giant’s GDP grew more than 8%.

The rigid adherence to the zero covid strategy isolated China and hit economic activity, rattling supply chains with repercussions for the world economy.

In the fourth quarter, the Chinese economy grew 2.9% year-on-year, down from 3.9% a year earlier, the National Statistical Office (NSO) reported.