Vladimir Putin decided to hand over the keys to the battlefield in Ukraine to Valery Gerasimov, the current chief of staff of the Russian Army. The new operations commander will have to direct the military situation in a context of power struggle with the Wagner group. Mission Impossible?
Change of bosses in the middle of a power struggle in Moscow. Just three months after being appointed to lead the war in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin had to relinquish his post on Wednesday, January 11. And he was not replaced by just anyone. Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to entrust the fate of his ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine to Valery Gerasimov, the current Army Chief of Staff.
Gerasimov is now “the third most important man in the Russian military hierarchy, after Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and is in charge of managing the situation in Ukraine,” sums up Jeff Hawn, a specialist in Russian military issues and external consultant to the New Lines Institute, a US geopolitical research center.
More moderate than “General Armageddon”
Valery Gerasimov is not only higher in rank than Sergei Surovikin. Both men are known for their difference in character. The ‘outgoing’ general had been described as “brutal and cruel” either “ruthless”.
For his part, the new commander of the Ukrainian front has “a solid track record in Chechnya and Crimea and is considered to have a moderating influence on the course of the war. He is also someone Americans can work with,” states Jeff Hawn.
“It’s certainly not some kind of ‘General Armageddon’ like Sergei Surovikin; However, I don’t know what impact he may have on the course of the war, ”confesses Stephen Hall, a specialist in Russian politics at the University of Bath in the United Kingdom. Indeed, “even if he wanted to, Valery Gerasimov does not have the equipment or the means or the men to fundamentally change the way the Russian army proceeds,” says Jeff Hawn.
From a military point of view, the appointment of that general “essentially confirms that broad offensives should be expected in the spring and that even Putin acknowledges that better coordination is needed between the troops,” Mark Galeotti, a security specialist, said on Twitter. russians. With his two positions – chief of the Army General Staff and commander of operations in Ukraine – Valery Guerasimov is supposed to have all the tools to improve this coordination.
Sacrifice Gerasimov or weaken Wagner?
But this redistribution of roles has above all a political importance. It comes at a key moment in the struggle for influence between Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenaries from the Wagner group, on the one hand, and the traditional army, on the other.
The latter is not very popular in Moscow at the moment. The war in the Ukraine has not gone as planned and the military “just suffered a humiliation with the Ukrainian bombing in Makiivka,” says Jeff Hawn.
For his part, Yevgueni Prigozhin has proudly performed from what the Wagner group presented as “their victory” in Soledar, in the Donbass region. A position that the Russian army did not appreciate: the chief of staff specified that his paratroopers contributed significantly to the fighting. Fights that, no matter how much the Wagner group regrets, continue to wreak havoc.
But beyond the reality on the ground, the message received by the ultra-conservative media in Moscow –very critical of the army– is that the Wagner group was at the forefront of one of the few Russian achievements in Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin seems to have gained a point against his main rival in the Kremlin: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. “The two cordially dislike each other and must perceive each action as an attempt to undermine the other in Vladimir Putin’s entourage,” explains Jeff Hawn.
In this context, the appointment of Valery Gerasimov can have two explanations. The most obvious would be to see in it “a call to order from Vladimir Putin addressed to Yevgueni Prigozhin, with the aim that he does not believe that everything is allowed”, considers Stephen Hall. Indeed, the new operations commander is one of Sergei Shoigu’s closest collaborators and “it is very likely that he will give the Wagner group much less freedom than his predecessor Sergei Surovikin, considered ideologically closer to Prigozhin,” adds this specialist in Russian political mysteries.
This appointment also lightens Sergei Shoigu’s load somewhat. “He will no longer have to constantly deal with Sergei Surovikin, who kept trying to stab him in the back,” says Stephen Hall.
A typical Putin maneuver
This recent appointment would be an example of a typical Putin maneuver. The Kremlin master does not like it at all when one of the factions around him rises higher than it should and “starts to feel too comfortable in public,” adds Stephen Hall. Thus, Valery Gerasimov would have received the position to put the Wagner group in his place.
But Vladimir Putin delivered a poisoned gift to his chief of staff. “From now on he is in charge and he will no longer be able to blame others if the situation for the Russian army gets even worse in Ukraine,” says Jeff Hawn.
It is not ruled out that Valery Guerasimov’s new role will also be his last before heading towards the exit. “He’s in a position to fail, which will give Vladimir Putin an excuse to get rid of him to please the ultra-conservative media,” says Jeff Hawn.
Valery Gerasimov’s position is even more delicate while he remains in Moscow. The consequence of the new distribution of roles is that there are now two seconds in command in Ukraine in charge of executing orders, one of whom is none other than… Sergei Surovikin. The latter “could perfectly try to pretend nothing had happened on the field and trip Valery Guerasimov,” says Stephen Hall.
The appointment is puzzling. It would be both good and bad news for the Wagner group, strengthening the Defense Minister’s clan while considerably weakening one of Sergei Shoigu’s best allies.
Welcome to the arcane world of Kremlin intrigue in the Vladimir Putin era. After all, this decision is a classic example of what the Russian president “does best: pit his aides against each other so that they are too busy attacking each other, leaving the Russian president to act as referee,” he says. Stephen Hall. Vladimir Putin sensed that the military setbacks in Ukraine risked working against him. He then decided to gather his beasts in the same arena: Ukraine.
