After less than a week ago the dollar in Colombia reached over $5,000, the good news, especially in the international field, They caused the currency to fall in recent days and yesterday it broke the floor of $4,800.
(Read: What you need to do to buy Policarpa’s $10,000 coin.)
In the daily bank trading market the currency opened operations at $4,783closed at $4,727.10 and reached as low as $4,722.
So, the Representative Market Rate (official dollar) for this Thursday is $4,748.54 which represented a drop of $59.31 compared to what was in force yesterday Wednesday.
The analyst Diego Rodríguez said that the market is awaiting this Thursday the inflation figure in the United States and the consensus is that the figure will be positive.
He assured thate the dollar globally continues to strengthen, as well as the currencies of Latin America.
“If the inflation data comes out better than expected tomorrow in the US, the price of the dollar will continue to weaken globally, including Colombia”said.
On the other hand, it also matters what may happen with the future of world economic activity, he said.
Colombian peso
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An analysis by Bancolombia mentioned that the main catalyst of the day was the market expectation around the publication of inflation in the US. where the consensus of analysts foresees an annual variation of 6.5%, a convincing sign of a lower rate of inflation.
(Also: Which countries is better to travel with Colombian pesos in 2023?).
“Consequently, they would be discounting a moderation in the next adjustments of the federal funds interest rate with 25 basic points in February and March, favoring the price of the main stock indices”, predicts Bancolombia.
In this context, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell 6.1 basis points and the dollar globally traded relatively stable.
Due to the above, Bancolombia said, the peso was favored, once again being the most appreciated (revalued) currency in the region with 1.33% against the dollar.
Transactions were made yesterday for a total amount of US$1,131 million (above the annual average of US$1,108 million)
Additionally, the bank’s comment indicated that according to technical analysis, the trend would be for the peso to appreciate in the coming days.
“In the short term we would expect the exchange rate to be above $4,685 and below $4,808”.
In a broader panorama, “we anticipate an upward trend for most of the year where the average exchange rate would be $4,915. For the first quarter of 2023 we expect an average exchange rate of $4,850,” Bancolombia said.
For Diego Gómez, a specialist in the exchange market at Corficolombiana, these days the peso and other currencies are appreciating (revaluing) against the dollar and the market is still digesting the US payroll data and is an indication that the Fed adopts a softer stance on raising interest rates in the US.
(Read: The dollar continues to fall and was traded for less than 4,750 pesos).
“ But the market is optimistic and if liquidity recovers, the dollar could remain above $4,800.”, he asserted.
A document from the Self-Regulator of the Stock Market on the upward volatility of the dollar in the second half of 2022 says that according to the liquidity indicators, “the volatility between May and October presented in terms of amount, adequate screen depth values, that allow to cover with a probability of 90% orders of up to US$40 million, but in the face of normal periods of volatility it shows significantly high levels of cost overruns to attend large orders.
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