The opposition seeks a new leader in Venezuela after the US withdraws its support for Guaidó

By Elianah Jorge, RFI correspondent in Venezuela

For the first time, the US State Department has announced that it does not recognize the interim presidency of Juan Guaidó. The opposition leader had the support of the US since January 2019, when the young politician proclaimed himself president of Venezuela.

Guaidó, who has come to be recognized by dozens of countries as the true leader of Venezuela, promised an end to the usurpation of power, a transitional government and free elections. However, the goal of removing Nicolás Maduro from power did not work.

By 72 votes in favor, 29 against and eight abstentions, the opposition -led by the Primero Justicia, Acción Democrática and Un Nuevo Tiempo parties- decided last Thursday that Juan Guaidó will not continue as head of the interim presidency of Venezuela.

Until the closing of this edition, Guaidó maintained the description of “President (I) of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela” on his social networks.

For its part, the Washington State Department has come to recognize the members of the National Assembly elected in 2015 as leaders, considering that Maduro “is not the legitimate leader of Venezuela.”

In an interview broadcast last Sunday, Maduro said he was willing to normalize relations with the United States.

The parties – which previously supported Guaidó and participated in the interim – said the interim government “has ceased to be useful”, in addition to not calling elections and facing corruption scandals.

The 2015 National Assembly, elected by popular vote and which provided the largest number of opponents to the Venezuelan Parliament after eliminating Guaidó’s interim government, assumed “special powers” and decided to extend his mandate for another year. It is the third time in a row since the opposition denounced the 2020 parliamentary elections as fraudulent.

The opposition group has taken the initiative in the administration of Venezuelan assets abroad that remain in the hands of the opposition. The 2015 Assembly also revoked all government structures, including embassies and diplomatic representations, that reported to Guaidó.

María Teresa Belandria, sworn in by Guaidó as Venezuelan ambassador to Brazil, ceased her duties and handed over her position after the opposition vote determined the end of the interim.

The group of deputies elected in 2015 only kept a few leaders, including the boards of directors of Citgo, the United States subsidiary of the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), appointed by Guaidó. The councils of the newly created Asset Protection and Management Council and the Expense Management Council were also saved.

For Daniel Varnagy, doctor of Political Science and professor at the Simón Bolívar University, the leadership of the interim lasted only “a few months”, between January and April 2019, the period between the rise of Guaidó and the failed uprising organized by him. and Leopoldo López against the Maduro government.

“In April it was seen that this leadership was in the figure of (Leopoldo) López and not in that of Guaidó. A curve of great disappointment began in the matter of leadership,” explains the analyst.

Concern over tons of gold in England

One of the concerns of the opposition that rejected the continuity of the interim government falls on the 31 tons of gold, valued at almost 1,000 million dollars (more than 5,000 million reais), which are stored in a bank in England. Opposition deputies fear that this inheritance will return to the guardianship of the Maduro government, which they consider “illegitimate.”

Freddy Guevara, of the Popular Will party (VP, the same as Guaidó), and Juan Miguel Matheus (Primero Justicia) said that if the assets abroad pass into the hands of the Maduro government, the British and American governments “will have to respond for handing over the assets to a human rights violator”.

Guevara stressed that “those responsible for the loss of gold will be those who voted in favor of dissolving the interim.”

Despite the high rejection rate, the Venezuelan government remains under the power of Maduro, Varnagy stressed. “The legitimacy of the position falls clearly on the shoulders of Mr. Maduro,” he says. “So much so that almost all the countries that want or seek to reestablish some kind of relationship with Venezuela do so through the Maduro government and not through what was the interim period,” says the political scientist.

In recent months, Maduro has emerged from international political ostracism. Among the changes, he has come to play an important role in the peace talks between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Colombian government. After years closed, the borders between the two countries were reopened. The new left-wing Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, supports Venezuela’s return to the Organization of American States (OAS) human rights system.

Another significant change came from Spain, which appointed an ambassador to Venezuela after two years of political crisis. Already in Brazil, previously rejected by former President Jair Bolsonaro, Maduro was invited to attend the inauguration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Complex scenario for the opposition

According to the Venezuelan electoral calendar, the presidential elections are scheduled for the end of 2024. The Maduro government has been campaigning since last year (2022). The opposition, for its part, finds itself in a complex situation, in Varnagy’s opinion. “Right now, the leadership of the opposition is as low as it was in the interim, with levels of expectation and confidence extremely low,” he says.

In times of vacancies, old names from the opposition, until then discreet in the political day-to-day, returned to the scene. This is the case of María Corina Machado, coordinator of the Vente Venezuela party, who called on citizens to participate in the renewal of the opposition leadership. On social networks, she asked her followers that “this 2023 we make the replacement and complete the job.” According to her, the opportunity for change is real. “We won’t let it go,” she urged.

For the political scientist Varnagy, although some groups call themselves the opposition, there is some flexibility on their part with the Maduro government.

“The strengthening of the opposition is mandatory. However, I have serious doubts that a political opposition will be formed. There are many interest groups in what we call ‘opposition’. And these economic interest groups meet permanently with the government (of Maduro) and they are trying to get ahead in these, in quotes, negotiations.”

During the “Venezuela 2023 Perspectives” seminar, organized by the Andrés Bello Catholic University, the most important in the country, it became clear that the Venezuelan political scene tends to change little. Varnagy supports the analysis and stresses that Chavismo has an important card up its sleeve.

“By holding opposition primaries (elections), it is possible that several candidates who have not yet run may want to run. But if these primaries are successful and strong, the faster the national government will seek to advance the elections, perhaps even advancing them to the end of this year (2023), so as not to give the opposition time to gather forces around the candidate who is elected in the primaries,” concludes the expert.