This is how Russia prepares the pincer that will allow them to completely take over the Donbas

The tactic seems to be the same as that used by the invading army in Lugansk, with more success than the “totum revolutum” that marked the first stages of the war. Advancing slowly, from different positions, and trying to close pincers to encircle the enemy troops and condemn them to surrender or an out-of-hand counteroffensive. Always, of course, with the artillery ahead and trying to use the infantry as little as possible (basically because with about 100,000 deaths between dead, prisoners and wounded there is not much infantry left).

In the case of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, all four fronts are clear. Although the closest one is about twenty kilometers from Sloviansk -a whole world, given what has been seen in this war-, it is understood that Russia is not going to speed up its operations. He neither has the means nor is it a strategy that has worked for him. You shouldn’t be in a particular hurry to end the war either: Although the new weapons that are arriving in Ukraine are very noticeable -especially the HIMARS missile launchers-, in the Kremlin they are convinced that the longer the war continues, the more nervous the West will become in the face of the resulting economic problems and the more it will press Zelenskiy to negotiate any kind of peace.

[Putin aumenta la presión sobre Zaporiyia, ciudad de la “Nueva Rusia” con una movilización inesperada]

Bohorodychne, Siversk and Artemivsk

The idea, as we have already said, is to completely surround the two key cities of the Ukrainian Donbas. Where Russia has advanced the most is in the north. The progression from the ledge of Izium, south of the Kharkov region, has not stopped for more than two months and the Russians are already next to the E40, the road that leads directly to Sloviansk, after crossing the Siverski Donets River through Sviatohirsk. His next targets in the area are Bohorodychne Y Sinkholevillages that have already been repeatedly bombed, but where the Ukrainian army still resists ground attacks.

The eastern front, right now located on the border of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, is also not far away. After having conquered Sievierodonetsk and Lisichansk, as we mentioned above, a good part of the Russian and allied troops have chosen to take a break. The rest, with the artillery ahead, advance west trying to reach Siversk. Both this city and Artemivsk further south have been repeatedly shelled, but every infantry attack has been successfully repelled.

This Siversk-Artemivsk axis promises to be key in the battle for Donbas, as it is an important communications hub and, therefore, is heavily defended by the Ukrainian army. Virtually all the troops that have had to withdraw from the Luhansk region are waiting nearby to face the enemy. In that sense, much more important than retaining Siversk is defend Artemivskancient Bakhmut, because its conquest would not only be a huge setback for the Ukrainian resistance and its defensive organization, but would also provide the possibility of attacking Kramatorsk from the south.

[Rusia ante su momento clave: ¿podrá atacar el Donbás y defender a la vez los puertos del sur?]

Now, even if Russia managed to take Bohorodychne and stalk Sloviansk from the north, even if it managed to take Siversk and approach it from the east… and even if it managed to take Artemivsk and from there take the E40 in the other direction to go straight to the target, it would still be up to Ukraine exit from the west. It is precisely this point that is giving Russia the most problems.

Barvinkove, the key piece

For months, we have been warning of the importance of the city of Barvinkove in this possible assault. We are talking about a city southeast of Kharkiv that has direct road access to Sloviansk. It is not an easy access -rather than a road it is a series of semi-paved roads- nor is it close -it is 50 kilometers away- but Russia has managed to get there from Izium following a straight and relatively simple path. That said, Ukraine has been waiting months for the attack on Barvinkove and is not going to make it easy for them. If Russia does not achieve this goal, it will have to find another way to close the cauldron… and it won’t be easy for you.

Bearing in mind that we are talking about the military center of the Ukrainian Donbas, it is very likely that Russia will take a long time in this conquest. Any mistake can result in thousands of deaths and haste has never been a good adviser in this war.

The problem Ukraine has is its inability to defend itself against enemy artillery. It does not have enough weapons to answer fire with fire or to repel it properly. Their defenses are too exposed and it’s easy for morale to drop in a context where the enemy has no eyes and no face, but always hides behind bullets and missiles.

For all these reasons, Ukraine is trying to adapt itself to the situation, gradually opting for a different tactic. Aware that they cannot fight face to face and that The West cannot give them all the weapons and ammunition they need, what they are doing is attacking Russian arsenals in Donetsk and other places far from the front lines. The Russian strategy is devastating, but at the same time it is too simple: bomb and bomb. there is no plan b. If Ukraine manages to eliminate some of that ammunition or if it hinders its movement by attacking communication routes, Russia will not be able to continue with this rhythm.

That is the great hope of the local army. Almost the only one, we would say. That the HIMARS allow, with their precision and range, to damage the supply lines and that this ammunition never reaches the front or that it arrives in a way that balances the fight. Right now, Ukraine’s purely armament inferiority is such that there is no courage to make up for it.

Russia acts like a roller, without exhibitions, but without pauses. Time is on their side or so they think. Something has to happen for the situation to change and the truth is that Russia has managed so far to lose advantages based on enormous clumsiness. Perhaps the greatest of all is yet to come.