The Ibex 35 loses 5.5% in 2022 marked by the war in Ukraine, inflation and rate hikes

Despite this setback, the Ibex has exhibited the best performance in Europe, behind only the Portuguese PSI and the British FTSE

Dec. 30 () –

The Ibex 35 has lost 5.56% of its value in the year and has ended the last session below 8,300 integers, compared to the level of 8,700 points with which it ended last year, in a year marked by the war in Ukraine, inflation and rate hikes by central banks.

This Friday’s session has not helped to bring the Madrid selective closer to last year’s level, since it closed with a fall of 1.07%, standing at 8,229.1 integers. Most of the components of the index closed today in ‘red’, highlighting the falls of IAG (-2.66%), Unicaja Banco (-2.55%), Naturgy (-2.37%), Red Eléctrica ( -2.17%) and Enagás (-1.99%). In ‘green’ only CaixaBank (+0.38%) and Fluidra (+0.28%) have been located.

The evolution of the selective has been marked by the war in Ukraine, the energy price crisis, high inflation and by the decisions of central banks to reduce the rapid rise in prices.

Despite this decline, the XTB analyst, Darío García, points out that the behavior of the Ibex 35 has been “very positive” compared to the rest of the European and American markets, in such a way that the Spanish index will close as the best stock market. behind the Portuguese PSI and the British FTSE.

The director of Analysis of the Spanish Institute of Analysts, Alfredo Echevarría, also agrees with García when pointing out that the Ibex 35 has “clearly” beaten the two major stock market references, since it has lost only 5.5%, while the Eurostoxx 50 is down about 10% and the S&P 500 is down about 20%.

This situation is produced, according to Echevarría, by a better ‘macro’ of the Spanish economy, with higher GDP growth and less impact of inflation, as well as a slower recovery of the Ibex 35 compared to pre-pandemic levels than the two selective ones. previously cited.

In addition, the composition of the Madrid index, with a great weight of the banking and defensive sectors, has contributed to a better position among investors in the face of the rise in rates and the risks that have swept over the main economies of the world.

In this context, the biggest rises in the whole year within the Ibex 35 have been registered by CaixaBank, with a revaluation of 52.11%, followed by Banco Sabadell (+48.8%), Respol (+42.24%) , Bankinter (+38.98%) and Logista (+34.62%). On the other hand, the biggest falls of the year have been accumulated by Fluidra (-58.75%), Rovi (-51.13%), Cellnex (-39.58%), Grifols (-36.19) and Colonial ( -27.15%).

PROSPECTS FOR 2023

For Echevarría, these factors should continue to benefit the Ibex 35 during the first half of 2023, when the rise in interest rates is expected to continue -a situation favorable to banks- and almost zero economic growth -favorable to defensive sectors- .

On a more general level, Renta 4 analysts point to certain trends and risks that could affect the markets in 2023. Thus, they believe that the tightening of monetary policies will be felt both in economic activity and in business results. In addition, they indicate that factors such as the war in Ukraine, tensions between China and Taiwan, more persistent than expected high inflation or outbreaks of Covid-19 in China that make it difficult to reopen the country should not be lost sight of.

THE ‘MACRO’ WILL DETERMINE THE FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR

Regarding the evolution of the week, the Ibex 35 has lost 0.48% marked by the few references and by the lower volume of negotiation due to the Christmas festivities. In this regard, García comments that the movements that have occurred in recent days have been led by retail investors “in a search for profitability and positioning” before the start of the year. In addition, he highlights the situation in China regarding the Covid-19, which continues to worry investors.

In raw materials, the XTB analyst highlights the greater volatility in the market due to weather forecasts and frost in the United States, which has put pressure on natural gas until it lost almost 10% in the week. Other energy products such as oil have followed.

In today’s session, a barrel of Brent quality oil, a reference for the Old Continent, stood at a price of 84.11 dollars, with a rise of 0.77%, while Texas stood at 78, 85 dollars, with an increase of 0.59%.

The rest of the European selectives have closed today with falls. Specifically, London has lost 0.81%, Paris, 1.52%, Frankfurt, 1.05% and Milan, 1.45%.

Finally, the price of the euro against the dollar stood at 1.0696 ‘greenbacks’, while the Spanish risk premium stood at 107 basis points, with the interest required on the ten-year bond at 3.635%.

For the first week of 2023, investors expect a battery of macroeconomic data, including manufacturing PMIs, the CPI for the world’s main economies, the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, and monthly employment data in the United States.