Why Johnson’s Downfall Won’t Fix UK-EU Relations Post-Brexit

“Boris Johnson’s reign ends in disgrace, as does that of his friend donald trump. The end of an era of transatlantic populism? I wish. Relations between the EU and the UK have suffered greatly from Johnson’s chosen Brexit. Things can only get better!“, He has written on his Twitter account Belgian Liberal MEP Guy Verhofstadt, who was the European Parliament’s negotiator during the divorce.

However, in the Commission Ursula von der Leyen they are not as optimistic as Verhofstadt. There is no denying the sense of relief to be rid of Johnson’s outlandish mannerisms and constant lies and non-compliance. But few trust that his resignation will resolve the main source of conflict between the European Union and the United Kingdom: the Northern Ireland border protocol.

[Bruselas lanza un arsenal de acciones legales contra Londres por saltarse el acuerdo del Brexit]

“Political developments (in the UK) do not change our position on the protocol or our work with the UK authorities and Northern Ireland. Our position is to seek solutions to put the protocol into practiceand that does not change,” said the spokesman for the Community Executive for Brexit, Daniel Ferrie.

The Irish Prime Minister, Micheal Martin, the one who has experienced Johnson’s snubs most closely, admits that “the relations between our governments have been tense and troubled in recent times.” “I call again for a reversal of unilateral measures, whether it is to deal with the legacy of the past, human rights or the protocol of Northern Ireland, “claims Martin.

However, it is unlikely that the call of the Irish Prime Minister and other European partners will be heard in London. Despite their many differences, if there is something that the main candidates to succeed Johnson share, it is his rejection of the Northern Ireland protocol and his willingness to renegotiate it -something that the EU rules out- or skip it unilaterally.

“The possible succession of Boris Johnson will not mean a change in Brexit because nobody in the United Kingdom – not even Labor – dares to question the process of breaking up with the EU. In addition, there is a good possibility that the Tories opt for a successor to the hard-line party who maintains the confrontational policy in Brussels and Northern Ireland“, Explains to EL ESPAÑOL Carme Coromina, main researcher at CIDOB in Barcelona.

“But the departure of a controversial and disloyal character like Johnson is an opportunity, at the very least, for forms: for restore credibility, lost trust between London and Brusselseroded with each challenge from the British prime minister to the agreements signed with the EU,” says Coromina.

The origin of the problem lies in the type of Brexit chosen by Johnson: a total rupture in which the United Kingdom has abandoned both the internal market and the customs union. With the purpose of avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland -which would have put the Good Friday Peace Agreement at risk- the outgoing prime minister agreed with the EU in October 2019 a special status for Northern Ireland, a region that is still linked to the rules of the EU internal market.

That means, in practice, the border has moved to the Irish Sea, with new customs and phytosanitary controls on products arriving at the ports of Northern Ireland from the island of Great Britain. The new border has in particular infuriated unionists in Northern Ireland, who claim that endangers the territorial integrity of the UK.

In mid-June, Johnson sent a new bill to Parliament to unilaterally modify the Northern Ireland protocol, eliminating a large part of the controls and ending the tutelage of the Luxembourg Court of Justice (CJEU). A movement that has outraged the EU and has led it to launch an arsenal of legal measures against London. And who was the promoter of this legislation? The Foreign Minister, Liz Trussone of the main candidates to replace Johnson.

“The serious situation in Northern Ireland means that we cannot allow the problem to fester. As a Government of the entire United Kingdom, it is our duty to take the necessary measures to preserve peace and stability,” said Truss, who has enthusiastically led the clash with Brussels in order to win over the most eurosceptic in his party.

To support this bill, Johnson had the favorable opinion of his attorney general, Suella Braverman, responsible for providing legal support to the Government. His opinion held that the rewriting of the Northern Ireland protocol does not violate international law, contrary to what the EU maintains. braveman was the first to declare her interest in becoming the new British prime minister Wednesday night.

“The way the protocol is operating right now poses huge problems for stability in Northern Ireland,” he says. in a recent interview the former finance minister, Rishi Sunak. Sunak was one of the first to resign to force Johnson’s downfall and place himself in the pole position to succeed him. But his position is shared by the rest of the candidates (Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Ben Wallace or Steve Baker), since it is currently the official line of the British Conservative Party.

For all this, The European Union resigns itself to continuing the Brexit battle, whoever succeeds Johnson. After the opening of new infringement procedures, the arsenal of retaliatory measures also includes tariff surcharges against British products or even the suspension of the free trade agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom. At the moment, waiting time in Brussels until the arrival of the new prime minister and his actions regarding the protocol.

“Whatever happens next, the EU must insist on full implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol. There are no Brexit opportunities, only Brexit costs. The protocol exists to minimize the damage caused by Brexit,” highlights the leader of the popular group in the European Parliament, the German Manfred Weber.