Putin increases pressure on Zaporizhia, city of the “New Russia” with an unexpected mobilization

The annexation of all these territories could be done in two ways: a quick, political one, consisting of taking kyiv and overthrowing the Zelensky government to place a puppet that would accept the cession of those provinces… and a slow, warlike, more painful one, which consisted in his military conquest. The first route having failed, the second is still in process. The words of the Russian high command made it clear when announcing in April the second phase of its “special operation”: “The goal is to occupy Donbas and join it to Transnitria through a corridor”. If you look at a map, you will see that this is the same as building this theoretical “New Russia” in practice.

For this, the problem is more in the south than in the east. We hear a lot about Sievierodonetsk, Lisichansk, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk… but very little about the enormous problems that Russia is having to consolidate its control over the coasts of the Sea of ​​Azov and the Black Sea. Since Russia took Melitopol, Kherson and surrounded Mariupol two weeks after the war began, the only novelty on this front has been the conquest of this last city, an emblem of Ukrainian resistance, at a very costly price in human lives.

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The Russian army, mostly from Crimea, came to position the front about twenty kilometers from the city of Zaporizhia and came even less from conquering Mikolaiv… but then the tortilla turned around and since then the only thing that has been able to do is defend yourself. It is said that now it is the Ukrainians who are in full counter-offensive and that the Kherson airport is barely ten kilometers from their positions. All of this information is very difficult to verify independently.

From Mariupol to Zaporizhia

At some point, if Russia really wants to stay true to its stated goals, it will have to try to reach Odessa in the west, Kharkov in the north, and climb lines to the Dnieper, where the key cities of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Mikolaiv are located. . In recent months we had completely forgotten about that axis because we were too focused on the east, but the news of the last week suggests that a new front can be opened in the area at any time.

Apparently, after two months of breaks, repairs and replacements, part of the troops that took Mariupol and the famous Azovstal steel mill are marching on the T0803 towards Zaporizhia, the capital of a region that Russia controls almost entirely. The importance of Zaporizhia is enormous and until now we took it for granted that it would be a secondary objective to the capture of Kramatorsk in the east, that is, that only when the province of Donetsk fell, the Russian troops would focus on the mouth of the Dnieper, a river that practically splits the country.

If the Russians were to seriously attempt an attack from the south, that would be an obvious problem for the Ukrainian defense, which was no longer counting on it. Is very doubtful that Russia has enough material and enough men to launch such an attack, but perhaps it will give him to entertain the Ukrainian army in skirmishes that distract him from the defense of the east. In case of making real progress towards Zaporizhia, the scenario that opens up to Russia is strategically very appetizing.

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The strategic importance of Zaporizhia

To get an idea, Zaporizhia is located four hours by car from Donetsk, an hour and a quarter from Dnipropetrovsk up the Dnieper River, and another four hours from Mikolaiv, in the other direction of the river. In other words, it is in the middle of that “Novarossiya” that Putin dreams of, and control of it allows opening three other fronts at the same time when the time comes. As far as we know, which is not exact, the southern front is at that height about fifteen kilometers from Komyshuvakha, which in turn is thirty-five from the capital Zaporizhia.

In short, the russians are fifty kilometers from the target, and, until now, in a defensive position. If these troop movements, acknowledged even by Petro Andryushenko, the adviser to the Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol, are for an offensive purpose, we could enter a completely different phase of the war. Not only because of the fact that a front that seemed asleep is awakening, but because of what it can mean that Russia manages to use Mariupol as a point of attack.

If your purpose is defensive, it will simply complicate any attempt at a Ukrainian counteroffensive, but, for now, those counteroffensives are focusing on Kherson, with sporadic partisan activity in some cities further east such as Melitopol. A special defensive need is not perceived just on that road, but the movements have been continuous for too long. Where those tanks and those transport units go we will know soon. For now, their mobilization alone should already arouse some suspicion in kyiv and consider the use of some of their fearsome HIMARS to cut off T0803 before it’s too late.