Foreign Agenda: The US and the EU in Ukraine, who gives more?

CARLOTA GARCÍA ENCINA | Senior Researcher for the US and Transatlantic Relations at the Elcano Royal Institute.

With the Republicans winning the US House of Representatives after the mid-term elections, doubts about the united front presented by the West in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine are growing. The level of transatlantic consensus on the need to support Ukraine, with military, financial and humanitarian aid, has been rare. And the magnitude of US financial and military support has been off the scale, compared to other countries.

Hence, the comments of the future speaker of the House of Representatives, the Republican Kevin McCarthy, that he will not continue issuing “blank checks” to Ukraine, have set off alarm bells. This is not to say that the Republicans are going to turn off the spigot, but that help could be conditioned on President Biden giving in on domestic policy issues and also putting more pressure on European allies to devote more resources to helping kyiv. But, in addition, public opinion polls are beginning to show that a growing number of Americans believe that the aid he is sending to Ukraine is excessive, while a group of liberal Democrats in the lower house urged Biden to start negotiations with Russia. , and to offer some form of relief from sanctions as an incentive. That feeling exists, therefore, on the left as well as on the right, and it is getting stronger.

Let us not forget that when the US steps forward, other nations follow. But if the US started to falter, other nations might too, and the house of cards would start to fall. And while Europe has considerable humanitarian and economic capabilities, compensating for the loss of US military and intelligence support in Ukraine seems unrealistic for the Europeans, while kyiv’s needs continue to grow.

But let’s not forget that there are also American concerns about how to keep European leaders aligned with American strategy. On the one hand, the debate on transatlantic cargo sharing is very much alive and the Europeans will have to be prepared to face the increasing pressure from Washington to increase their military and financial support for Ukraine. On the other hand, Americans view with concern the protests in some European cities over rising inflation and the high cost of heating, increasing pressure on governments to weigh domestic issues against supporting Ukraine.

In the end, what should worry the most is that there is a transatlantic division, either due to a slowdown in aid –American and European– that could lead to “a game changer”, or due to clashes on energy and economic issues, where the US is better positioned. A coherent and unified message between the US and Europe is increasingly critical to success in Ukraine, and any fracture in support for kyiv could give Moscow an advantage on the battlefield, as well as greatly weaken Ukraine’s negotiating position on the issue. to Russia.