Ukraine, world arms fair

The absence of aerial deployment and the presence of fewer tanks than in previous celebrations in Red Square on the day of the Soviet victory against Nazi Germany, May 9, in addition to a speech contained by Vladimir Putin –without threats of nuclear war or demanding new sacrifices– were the first signs that the Kremlin was beginning to be aware of its strategic limitations. None of the armored vehicles that participated carried the Z, symbol of the “special military operation”. Gleb Pavlovskya former Putin adviser who fell from grace in 2011, told New York Times that his former boss then had a more realistic sense of what “is and is not possible.” For example, a general mobilization, which would require Putin to break his promise that he would not send conscripts to Ukraine. Polls show that 39% of Russians pay little or no attention to the war.

However, in Russia it is increasingly difficult to live with a certain normality, with the biggest fighting in Europe since the Second World War 700 kilometers from Moscow. Russia believes it has the necessary resources to prevail in a war of attrition to consolidate its control of the Donbas and the Black Sea coasts, from Sochi to Odessa. It will not be easy.

The president of United States, Joe Biden, has promised that the new “lend-lease” law – in a reference to Franklin Roosevelt’s Lend-Lease Act of 1941 – will give kyiv the necessary weapons for its defense in the “difficult days ahead”. In the Capitol, the Senate approved unanimously and the House of Representatives by 417 votes against 19 aid – military, humanitarian and economic – of 33,000 million dollars to kyiv. If previous figures are added, the total today reaches 46.6 billion dollars, two-thirds of the Russian defense budget.

victory and defeat

The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosiand the UK Foreign Minister, Liz Truss, believe that the ultimate goal of the war is to expel Russia from Ukraine, including Crimea. Since March, the number of Allied troops from the Baltic to the Black Sea has increased tenfold. At the Madrid Summit, the secretary general of the NATO, Jens Stoltenbergannounced the deployment of 300,000 troops, prepared to react within 30 days in the event of an attack. Strict sensuthe Atlantic Alliance has ceased to be neutral to become non-belligerent, a role similar to that held by Washington from 1937 – when the Second Sino-Japanese War began – until Tokyo’s attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.

«In a world of frozen conflicts, without declarations of war or formal surrenders, defining victory –or defeat– seems an almost impossible mission»

The problem is that in a world of frozen conflicts, without declarations of war or formal surrenders, defining victory – or defeat – seems like an almost impossible mission. Ukrainian Defense Minister, Dmytro Kulebasays, for example, that victory is an “evolving concept,” while Mathieu Bouleguea researcher at Chatham House, describes it as a “subjective state of mind, a narrative” in which Ukraine has a decisive advantage.

Samuel Cranny-Evansan analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, points out that Ukraine is neither losing nor Russia winning, but that it is a tie that does not favor negotiations and rather the search for military solutions, which explains, among other things, why Ukraine has become the world’s largest defense industry fair, with real targets and free advertising.

attack and defense

Russia began the war with a great advantage: its artillery, the mythical “god of war” of the Red Army. Russian 203-millimeter Peony howitzers have an effective range of 40 kilometers, compared to 28 for the Ukrainian Geocent. To balance things out, the US promised to send 90 M777 howitzers to kyiv, with high-precision firing up to 50 kilometers.

The legends that the Soviet army forged from Stalingrad to Berlin have hidden that Russia was defeated by the French, British and Ottomans in Crimea (1853–56), Japanese (1904–05), Afghans (1978–1992) and Chechens (1994–1996). ). According to the British defense minister, ben wallaceIn the first two months of the invasion, Russia had lost some 15,000 soldiers, 25% of its 120 battalions, 2,000 armored vehicles, and more than 60 helicopters and fighter jets.

As he writes in Joint Force Quarterly TX Hammes, a retired Marine Corps colonel, technology has once again given the advantage to defensive tactics, as it did in the US Civil War and World War I. In the Second, aviation and tanks gave predominance to offensive strategies such as blitzkrieg German between 1939-1941. Now, on the other hand, the defenders benefit from technologies that allow them to detect and attack the enemy from far away, making the advance very dangerous, as the Russian army was able to verify in its failed attempt to take kyiv. To gain regional hegemony, Hammes points out, Russia and China have to cross borders and capture territory. NATO, only defend itself.

Arsenals of democracy

On April 13, senior Pentagon officials met with directors of the eight largest US defense contractors –Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Boeing, Northrop Grumman…– to ask them to increase their production in the face of massive transfers of weapons to Ukraine, which will require replenishing the inventories of the 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons and 60,000 anti-tank weapons, among other defensive equipment that kyiv receives.

Every day, half a dozen NATO bases in Poland and Romania receive a dozen flights with military cargo. The Czech government says it has transferred T-72 tanks and BMP-1 armored vehicles to kyiv, and Slovakia the S-300 anti-missile system. Estonia has agreed to send $220 million worth of weapons. Apparently, the former members of the Warsaw Pact have old historical debts to settle with Moscow. They are not the only ones.

«Every day, half a dozen NATO bases in Poland and Romania receive a dozen flights with military cargo»

Germany has sent 1,000 anti-tank weapons, Norway 2,000, and Sweden 5,000. France, Milan anti-tank missiles and Caesar howitzers, and Canada, 155mm howitzers. London, in addition to its already famous NLAW, has promised the starstreak, they accelerate to Mach 4 speed. Most Soviet tanks were made in the Ukraine. Since 2010, a state-owned company has been producing and exporting armor, aircraft and anti-aircraft weapons that have allowed Ukraine to control its airspace.

Many analysts suggest that the mysterious fires and explosions that have been taking place at fuel and ammunition depots in Russia – including a railway bridge in Belgorod and an aerospace defense institute in Tver – were sabotage operations, an old tactic of asymmetric warfare, of undercover agents.

war stars

In the Ukrainian showcase, the big stars are being man-portable anti-tank missiles like the FGM-148 Javelin, that costs about 176,000 dollars but can destroy two million tanks. The Swedish-British NLAW, who weighs 12.5 kilos, and the Swedish Carl Gustaf are unbeatable in close range ambushes. In total, NATO had sent Ukraine more than 17,000 anti-tank missiles by mid-May, a third of the Pentagon’s inventory.

Drones, for their part, have confirmed that they are essential on battlefields, especially kamikazes such as the Switchblade 600, which, launched from a light mortar, can fly at 250 kilometers per hour up to distances of 80 kilometers with an explosive charge of 40 kilos. The Phoenix Ghost can fly for hours before swooping down on a target. The Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has shown its ability to penetrate dense anti-aircraft barriers carrying 22-kilogram bombs.

reputational disasters

Ukraine, on the other hand, is destroying the reputation of the Russian defense industry, which is of particular concern to India and China, major clients of Rosoboronexport, Russia’s main state arms agency. In April, DJI, China’s largest drone manufacturer, suspended operations in Russia and Ukraine.

According to the Pentagon, as of May 2, Russia had fired 2,125 cruise and ballistic missiles that it cannot replenish due to lack of semiconductors. The sinking of Moscow (Moscow), a 186-meter-long cruise ship, is difficult to minimize: its radar and air defense systems were useless against the attack of two Ukrainian R-360 Neptune, an 870-kilogram cruise missile that flies at low levels to avoid detection. To avoid similar humiliation, in 1940 the Nazis changed the cruiser’s name deutschland for the of Lützow.

Russia’s two main tank makers – Uralvagonzavod Corporation and Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant – are paralyzed due to lack of chips. T-72s, on the other hand, have revealed their vulnerability to Javelins and NLAWs due to the close proximity of their crews to their ammo depots, blowing up their turrets when hit by a missile.

stock market bonanza

As happened in the Spanish civil war, which served the Axis powers to test weapons and refine combat tactics, Ukraine will allow the testing of “killer robots”, such as drones capable of choosing their targets – including specific people – using intelligence algorithms. artificial. In January, Raytheon’s CEO, Greg Hayes, anticipated to its shareholders that large-scale conflicts in Eastern Europe would boost its operations. Raytheon makes the FIM-92 Stinger anti-aircraft missile, and Raytheon and Lockheed Martin the Javelin.

In Europe, the winners are, among other large companies, the British BAE Systems, which has risen in the stock market by 30% since January, the German Rheinmetally Krasuss-Maffei Wegman, and the Italian Leonardo. Since January, the MSCI index, which tracks the value of shares in aerospace and defense companies, has risen 17% more in dollars than the rest, something that had only happened a couple of times since 1999.