November 16 () –
Hurricane-like storms can also hit cooler regions in the far north, and new research suggests that they will also intensify as the climate changes.
In a new study, NASA scientists project that Arctic spring cyclones will intensify by the end of this century due to loss of sea ice and rapidly warming temperatures. Those conditions will lead to stronger storms bringing warmer air and more moisture to the Arctic.
“The cyclones will be much stronger in terms of pressure, wind speed and precipitation,” he said. it’s a statement Chelsea Parker, who led the study. “Initially, the storms will drop more snow, but as air temperatures continue to rise and we get above freezing temperatures, the storms will drop rain, what a big change for the sea ice sheetParker is a research scientist at the University of Maryland and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
“The most intense storms will threaten shipping activities, oil and gas drilling and extraction, fisheries, and Arctic ecosystems and biodiversity; that’s where marine weather forecasting is important but still challenging and difficult“It’s an interesting tug-of-war because as the sea ice recedes, that opens up more area for these activities to take place, but it could also come with more dangerous weather.”
Arctic cyclones can cause sea ice to melt more quickly. Its strong winds can break up and whip up ice and carry warmer, otherwise ice-covered water up. And depending on your location, temperature, and whether these storms are dumping snow or rain, they can also cause ice to freeze or melt more quickly.
Parker and his colleagues analyzed computer simulations of nine cyclones that hit the Arctic in the last decade. The warming and loss of sea ice in recent decades does not appear to have a noticeable effect on the behavior of these spring storms, Parker noted.
To better understand future conditions, the scientists simulated an Arctic with even warmer temperatures and less sea ice cover using results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects. “When we add projected future climate change to the computer simulation,” Parker said, “we see a really big response from cyclones.”
The team found that by the end of the century, cyclone wind speeds could increase by as much as 61 kilometers per hour, depending on the characteristics of the storm and environmental conditions in the region. Parker noted that the peak intensity of such storms could be up to 30 percent longer, and precipitation is likely to increase. If cyclones start to bring rain in the spring, sea ice may start to melt sooner and less will survive the summer melt season.
Such changes will allow the ocean to provide more energy to the atmosphere for deep convection, increasing the potential for storms to intensify and persist. Like hurricanes at low and mid-latitudes, arctic cyclones use this energy as fuel in an engine.
Storms in the coming decades could travel further north and reach areas of the Arctic that are normally left untouched.. The changing climate could increase risks to Arctic ecosystems, communities, and commercial and industrial activities.
