the thorns that undermine the power of Sultan Erdogan

The PKK denies its involvement in the attack that occurred on an avenue in the commercial area of ​​Istanbul. Now the Government “does not rule out” the jihadist trail. The Turkish Church prays for the victims. Vicar of Istanbul: The attack was like a “lightning”, something completely unexpected, which hits the resumption of tourism and pilgrimages. Internal and external “enemies” and the 2023 presidential race.

Milan () – Almost 48 hours away, there are still many obscure points regarding the attack that occurred on the afternoon of November 13 in one of the most popular and busiest streets of Istanbul, the economic and commercial capital of Turkey. The highest institutions, from the president to members of the government, raised their accusing fingers against the “terrorists” responsible for a “vile attack” to hit the heart of the country. The Interior Minister took aim at the Kurds, attributing responsibility the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Syrian Kurdish YPG militias – perhaps with suspicious haste, or at least carelessness. The investigations would converge in Kobane, the Syrian city from which the (alleged) terrorist, Ahlam Albashir, comes, and where the action would have taken place.

In the last hours, the movement of Kurdish fighters categorically denied its involvement in the explosion that killed six people and injured more than 80. “It is absolutely inconceivable for us to attack civilians, in any way,” the PKK note states. Some doubts also seem to arise on the Ankara side, because almost simultaneously with the statement, a statement by a government official emerged according to which “the hypothesis that the gesture was the work of the Islamic State (IS) is not completely ruled out. , former ISIS)”, despite the fact that the jihadist group usually claims responsibility for its actions through social channels. And after the attack in Istanbul there has been no statement or comment in this regard: the supporters of the “caliphate” did not show any particular enthusiasm.

Undoubtedly, what remains is the pain for the victims and their families, and the old ghosts that stir the sleep of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his struggle to stay in power also reappear. In addition to the problem of a stagnant economy and rampant inflation, the sultan grapples with three thorns: the Kurds, the Syrian conflict and its refugees – once welcome and now a cumbersome burden – and ISIS. The 2023 elections loom on the horizon. And as various observers point out, the recent elections were preceded by a six-month period of attacks and episodes of external and internal violence, including the controversial 2016 coup that shook the foundations of Ankara. Faced with all this, Erdogan’s leadership remains, which, in recent years, has managed to maintain control of the country. Yet today, more than ever, it seems that Erdogan needs an “enemy” to stick to his presidential seat.

The prayer of the Turkish Church

The attack took the city and its inhabitants by surprise, who are struggling to leave behind two years of closures and restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic and whose main source of income is trade and tourism. At the same time, the wounds of the past are reopened. “Unfortunately, the attack was like lightning” -he says to Monsignor Massimiliano Palinuro, Apostolic Vicar of Istanbul. “The climate in the city, especially in recent times, was relaxed. And there was a considerable increase in the flow of tourists and visitors, it was a favorable moment for the reactivation of the sector in Turkey.”

“In these moments – continued the prelate – we feel that the attitude of prayer, recollection and solidarity with the victims who lost their lives and with the many wounded, caught up in the tragedy is a priority. As Christians, we feel even more committed to build relations of peace, to be builders of bridges and architects of reconciliation in Turkish society”.

Twenty-four hours after the attack, yesterday afternoon, the vicar of Istanbul declared: “There is great fear, some streets are deserted and the population is disconcerted. There is fear for the future, there is so much uncertainty that groups of tourists and pilgrims have canceled their trips, taken over by panic. And this is a very real problem, because there had been a rebound in tourists and pilgrims, which guarantee jobs. This is a very important page for the Turkish economy.” Now, Monsignor Palinuro points out, it is time to “keep your nerves at bay, you must avoid rushing the situation, the Turkish police are very efficient” and have experience “in identifying the terrorist cells that may be behind the attack.” There is an entire organization, in terms of security, that is launching the necessary initiatives to neutralize possible attacks in the future. It is clear that the international political situation does not contribute to facilitating the situation, “he concludes. “Economic uncertainty also becomes a deterrent to popular discontent. “That is why it is essential to have nerves of steel.”

The Sultan’s thorns ahead of the presidential elections

Istiklal Avenue, the scene of the attack, is a multi-ethnic shopping street in the European part of the city of Istanbul. There are plenty of restaurants, shops, businesses and places of worship, including churches and mosques, as well as foreign consulates. Whoever attacked it may have chosen it not only because it is a busy place, but because it is a symbol of consumption, of openness, of diversity in a country where nationalism (and islam) have made their way in recent years, two weapons that have allowed Erdogan to exercise power, even before the new escalation of the crisis triggered by the pandemic. In addition, it is not the first case in which the leaders use terrorism as a factor of cohesion, to consolidate a shaky government, fueling feelings such as fear and anger to shore up the consensus.

Especially in this phase of the economic crisis in which Erdogan himself has played many of his cards on the international front, even more than on the domestic front. In the war in Ukraine, he tries to set himself up as a mediator with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, to boost his own prestige. And in this way, he silenced the numerous accusations of authoritarianism, violations of human rights and chronic repression of the internal opposition -for which resort to judges and rules ad hoc.

However, the ghosts (old and new) that could darken the sultan’s star come precisely from outside. First of all, the Kurds (Syrians and Iraqis), who have been bombarded by the Turkish president for months, in selective attacks with a view to a broader operation, the aim of which is to extend the security belt along the border (until now , Moscow and Washington have prevented this from happening).

Expansionist views have raised the issue of Kurdish resistance also in neighboring Iraq, where (unproven) accusations of the use of chemical weapons have been made, sparking outrage and the threat of an equally harsh response. From Syria comes the second time bomb that threatens Turkish society: those four million refugees that, at the beginning of the war, Erdogan welcomed in the name of the common “Islamic brotherhood” (and as a weapon of blackmail against Europe), and that today represent an unbearable burden, while the economy falters. A weight that is also political, because more and more Turks view their presence with suspicion (if not with open hatred), and demand that the government start talks with the “enemy” Bashar al-Assad so that the refugees return to their country source.

Finally, there is the jihadist galaxy that has sworn revenge on Erdogan: in the early days, the sultan left the field open to ISIS for its trafficking along the Turkish border; later, he fought it militarily and arrested its leaders (also for propaganda purposes). All these fronts are still open, they are unresolved knots that are now surfacing and could cost Erdogan his re-election, in addition to representing credible clues to explain the attack in Istanbul. It is another blow to the prestige of the country and the government, which has tried to manage (and censor) the information after the explosion, including photos and videos on social networks. The columnist of haaretz, Zvi Barel, writes; “Erdogan cannot show that he has lost control of the country’s security.”

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