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The Paris Forum on Peace opens its doors this Friday with the challenge of promoting behind-the-scenes negotiations in Mexico between the Venezuelan government and opposition, which French President Emmanuel Macron called for resuming “as soon as possible.” The world energy crisis due to the war in Ukraine would not be unrelated to the role that Paris intends to play.
The fifth edition of the Paris Forum on Peace has a South American accent with the presence of the presidents of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, and Argentina, Alberto Fernández, as well as a video speech by the elected Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
To this meeting, under the aegis of the French presidency and which will also be attended by the leaders of Colombia and Argentina, the government of Nicolás Maduro sent the president of the National Assembly Jorge Rodríguez, one of the figures of Chavismo.
For its part, the opposition will be represented by former deputy Gerardo Blyde. The meeting could be a prelude to the resumption of the negotiations held in Mexico, but which the Maduro government broke up a little over a year ago after the extradition of businessman Alex Saab to the US.
According to Luis Salamanca, a political scientist and professor at the Central University of Venezuela, the signs of openness from the US and France towards the Maduro regime are due in part to the context of the energy crisis with “the concern of returning to oil-producing Venezuela.” .
“There is like the need to recover that, which takes a lot of time and money. I imagine that Western countries are thinking strategically, with the intention of preparing the future in case of an energy crisis. There is a fear that the Venezuelan situation will get out of hand”, estimates Salamanca.
In this framework of negotiations, what do both parties have to offer to get out of the political crisis? For the representative of the Venezuelan opposition, “they have very little to give each other.”
“The government knows that if it gives democratic conditions it can lose an election. As for the opposition, which aspires to that, if it does not achieve it, it is not going to give in either in terms of sanctions or in terms of London gold…”, points out the political scientist.
However, Salamanca believes that there is a small room for negotiation. “Now, there are a few minimums that could be touched,” she says. “The possibility that your unitary candidate in these primaries will not be disqualified, arrested or forced to leave the country. Secondly, that he respects the card on which opposition voters can place the vote. The third question would be an independent international observation”, she stresses.
“The opposition has to play to certain minimums. The rest of the conditions, the government is not going to grant them, such as having a more or less important freedom of expression, varied information, with media outlets that can speak without the danger of being closed. This year more than 100 stations closed in Venezuela”, points out Luis Salamanca.
