What foreign policy with a Republican victory?

First modification: 09/11/2022 – 13:49

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Joe Biden administration has sought to cement its alliance with kyiv. The United States has so far disbursed the sum of 45,000 million dollars in aid to the country: 25,000 million for the military component, 20,000 million in loans or donations for Ukrainian civilian use. This is a colossal amount of financial and material aid, making the United States Ukraine’s largest donor.

But could this support diminish if the House of Representatives falls to the Republicans? The statement in mid-October by Kevin McCarthy, Republican leader in the House of Representatives and possible future speaker of the House as of January 3, was in any case a bombshell. He warned that his party would not write a “blank check” to Ukraine if the Republicans won the midterm elections.

Pro-Trump Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia also agreed, saying “not a penny” for Ukraine, after accusing Joe Biden of sending “hard-earned American tax dollars.”

Foreign policy divisions among Republicans?

Other Republicans, by contrast, reaffirmed their full support for the Biden administration’s funding of Ukraine. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell issued a statement in which he pledged that most Senate Republicans would continue to help kyiv in its war. This episode is symptomatic of the differences in foreign policy within the Republican Party. On the one hand, the pro-Trump defenders of “America First”, and on the other, the more traditionalist Republicans, resistant to Russia and who cultivate the idea that the United States should continue to play an international role.

But according to Jérémy Ghez, an economics professor at HEC (Higher School of Commercial Studies) and a specialist in the United States, if the House of Representatives turns red with a Republican majority, there will not necessarily be any notable change in American foreign policy. “Kevin McCarthy’s message is a very clear political message, intended for internal use. It is part of a policy that pays tribute to this middle class that has paid a very high price in Iraq and Afghanistan,” he told RFI.

However, the European Council on Foreign Relations states in a November 8 analysis that votes on the future financing of kyiv will systematically turn into real political battles in Congress.

Consensus to support Ukraine

However, among US public opinion, support for Ukraine remains a matter of consensus. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll As of early October, three out of four Americans believe the United States should continue to help Ukraine despite the Russian threat. Jérémy Ghez also reminds us that this clear support for kyiv is found even within the political class.

“For Washington, the idea of ​​being able to weaken Russia, China or Iran has strategic interests, but they are not vital. Until now, there is a convergence of interests for the Americans to defend Ukraine. Perhaps if kyiv says that it wants to recover Donbass, there won’t necessarily be the convergence that we’ve seen so far,” he explains. “When Nancy Pelosi [la actual presidenta demócrata de la Cámara de Representantes, nota del editor] goes to Taiwan, represents something that is well established in this political class. It is a way of saying: we have to uphold the universal values ​​that the United States stands for, whether it is in Taiwan or in Ukraine,” he adds.

Other foreign policy issues: Afghanistan, China, the weather…

For the foreign policy of the US media, if the Republicans become a majority in the House of Representatives, it is very likely that they will call for an investigation into the debacle of the US military in Afghanistan. It would be a way of pointing out the failure of the US operation there and of understanding the management, by the Joe Biden administration, of the withdrawal of troops from the country in 2021.

For the foreign policy mediumIf Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives, they are likely to call for an investigation into the US military debacle in Afghanistan. It would be a way of pointing out the failure of the US operation there and of understanding the management, by the Joe Biden administration, of the withdrawal of troops from the country in 2021.

As for Sino-US relations, despite the consensus on a strong economic policy toward China, Republicans could push for even more aggressive measures on Chinese export controls, and regulatory measures aimed at discouraging US and European companies from invest in China, as pointed out by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

It is also certain that a Republican majority would criticize the US president’s environmental policies, but without gaining the power to pull the US out of the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement.