Voters marking their ballot in a privacy booth at West Side High School during early voting in New York City on November 6. (Photo: Michael Brochstein/Sipa USA/AP)
The 2022 midterm elections have arrived and here are seven things to watch in this Tuesday’s midterm elections:
Who will control the House of Representatives: Of all the main arguments on Tuesday night, this is one that few Democrats discuss since the party is unlikely to control the legislative chamber in January. Given that the Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to clinch a majority, the chances are high that the GOP will win back the House. The party is on the offensive in House races across the country, but most notably in districts Biden carried handily just two years ago, including seemingly blue districts in Rhode Island, New York and Oregon.
Who will control the Senate: If control of the House of Representatives seems more like an inevitable loss for Democrats, control of the Senate, currently evenly split, offers a surprising bright spot for the party, aided by voters who harbor unfavorable sentiments toward Democrats. Republican candidates, while disapproving of Biden’s job performance. The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents on the ballot are in Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona and Georgia, where polls show each of those races close. The party is on the offensive in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states that Biden won just two years ago.
Election deniers in key states: Republicans who have parroted former President Donald Trump’s lies about widespread voter fraud are trying to take over the election machines in some swing states. The results in those states could have dramatic consequences in 2024, with Trump on the brink of another presidential bid and candidates in crucial swing states seeking positions they could try to use to undermine the will of voters.
Latino voters will continue their swing to the right: Republicans will watch if based on Trump’s gains among Latino voters two years ago. Three House elections in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas, with a strong Hispanic presence, will tell part of the story. Latino voters also make up crucial portions of the electorate in Arizona, Nevada and Miami-Dade County in Florida.
The impact of presidential politics: “If we lose the House and the Senate, it’s going to be a horrible two years,” Biden said at a fundraiser on Friday. It’s an argument former President Barack Obama, who campaigned for candidates in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania in recent weeks, made explicit during his final rally in Philadelphia on Saturday.
Those who make the wave (or those who break it): the shape of Congress over the next two years could be quite apparent in the first hours after polls close on the East Coast, even if a handful of big races are too close to being announced. For Democrats, a loss in even two of the three contests would herald a very, very bad night. The party, both nationally and in certain states, has increasingly invested its electoral destiny in the notoriously fickle suburbs. If a republican wave is coming, the first sighting of high tides will be on the Atlantic coast.
the wait: As most Americans learned two years ago, Election Day can be a misnomer. This Tuesday is when the voting ends. But, in many states, that’s also when the count begins. That means many hotly contested elections could take until early morning or even later this week to decide. This is due in part to the nature of the recount—and sometimes the recount—but also to state laws that instruct poll workers on how to do their jobs and, in some states, require them not to do so until later.
