ISRAEL Netanyahu wins the elections; boom of Itamar Ben Gvir’s religious Zionism

“Bibi” is preparing to return to power after a impasse of a year In his first words he addresses all Israelis, but he will have to deal with the claims and demands of the extreme right, the true revelation of the vote. With 86% of the votes counted, the majority party can count on at least 65 seats. The first discontents come from Abu Dhabi, which could reconsider the “Abraham Accords”.

Jerusalem () – Personal and partisan triumph for Benjamin Netanyahu, the former prime minister who returns to power after a hiatus of almost a year; great affirmation for the extreme right and the ultra-Orthodox; clear defeat for the left, which runs the risk of not reaching the threshold of votes necessary to enter Parliament; A false step for the outgoing Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, whose party, however, managed to withstand the shock, obtaining a good amount of support. These are the keys that emerged after the general elections on November 1 in Israel, the fifth vote in just over three years, marked by a large turnout of voters and a turnout of 71.3%, the highest recorded since 2015.

At the head of a government for almost five decades of his political career, Netanyahu regains the leadership of the country after a year of forceful opposition and power games behind the scenes, and a trial for corruption that is still going on. He knew how to take advantage of the consensus of a large part of the electorate and the internal tensions of the previous majority. But he also benefited from a government that was always on the tightrope, in which Arab parties, the nationalist right and the rest of the Israeli left congregated.

Once the count is over (for the moment, the count reaches 86%), the coalition led by King Bibi hopes to obtain 65 seats out of the 120 in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, well above the 61 necessary to be a majority. . As the forecasts anticipated, Likud is the party with the most votes by the electorate. In second place is the centrist movement of outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid, and in third place – with a statement that seems even more significant than Netanyahu’s return – the far-right Jewish Power Front and the religious Zionist Party of Itamar Ben Gvir.

This suggests that Ben Gvir could carve out a prominent role in the new executive: the far-right lawyer and activist has recently become famous for his radical, violent and racist positions. In the past, he has repeatedly demanded the annexation of the entire West Bank without granting any concessions to the Palestinians. He also called for greater room for maneuver for the army in the Territories and restrictions on the Supreme Court, until now one of the few independent powers of the executive and a bastion of the Constitution. From his first words, he relaunched the nationalist policy: he said that it was “time to return to being masters of the country”, underlining the need to “guarantee the security” of the citizens.

More moderate were the first words of the leader in chest of the next government, which last night, from the electoral headquarters, promised to “take care of everyone”, because Israel “respects all its citizens” without distinction. At the moment, it seems that he ignores the most radical and extremist positions of his allies. But it won’t be long before the far right and the ultra-Orthodox will play a prominent role in the future executive.

Some analysts, such as political columnist Lahav Harkov of the jerusalem post, believe that Netanyahu could seek the support of the centrist Benny Gantz, outgoing defense minister and former ally of the government, before throwing himself into the arms of the extreme right. On the other hand, although Gantz has repeatedly denied new alliances or external support for Netanyahu (and vice versa), it should be stressed that the positions between the two leaders -or their respective parties- are not so dissimilar. Even internationally, relaunching the “Abraham Accords” and regional alliances with the Gulf countries may be easier with a moderate, centrist ally. Unlike the relations with the Ben Gvir front, which present more than one unknown, not to mention the discontent they cause, and which is already filtering from Abu Dhabi.

Lapid’s Yesh Atid party is in second place and should get its best result ever with 24 seats, but the anti-Likud front coalition is well below the threshold needed to form a majority in the Knesset. The Labor Party won 4 seats, Meretz’s radical left might not enter Parliament: several tens of thousands of votes remain to be counted and for now it is below the 3.25% threshold.

Balad, a left-wing party representing Arab-Israelis, will almost certainly be left out. The Arab community was divided in these elections and, judging by the early results, it would appear that this negatively impacted turnout in constituencies inhabited primarily by Arab-Israelis.