The polls give the Social Democrats a wide lead over their main rival, the conservative-liberal Venstre party.
The right appears divided and in recess, while former Prime Minister Lokke Rasmussen could hold the key to governability
Oct. 31 () –
Denmark goes to the polls this Tuesday in a general election called in advance after the Social Liberal Party – government partner of the Social Democrats – forced the Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, to advance the vote in exchange for not presenting a motion of censure.
The economic management of the country at a convulsive moment for the whole of the old continent due to the war in Ukraine, added to a report contrary to the Executive’s management of the mink crisis, sacrificed by a mutation of the coronavirus, were the main arguments for pressure from government partners.
Thus, Frederiksen finally agreed at the beginning of October to call general elections for this Tuesday, eight months before the current legislature technically expires in which, after the 2019 elections, the Social Democrats reached the government with the support not only of the Social Party Liberal, but also from the Green Left and the leftist Red-Green Alliance.
If already at that time the result of the future elections seemed to be favorable to the Social Democrats, almost a month later and an electoral campaign through, Prime Minister Frederiksen has more support now than when the general elections were brought forward.
Frederiksen has seen how her popularity has rebounded in opinion polls, overcoming a bump that led her to have less than 25 percent of the support of Danish citizens, although well above the rest of her political rivals, who since January last year they have barely hovered around 15 percent approval.
The latest polls in Denmark give the Social Democrats around 25.7 percent of the vote, widely surpassing the conservative-liberal party Venstre (Left, in Danish), currently the second party with the most representation in Parliament and leader of the so-called ‘blue bloc’ Danish opposition.
Among Frederiksen’s government partners, luck is uneven, with a Red-Green Alliance that drops its results by almost one point compared to 2019, with a Social Liberal Party that remains around 4.6 percent, but with a Green Left that more than doubled its results, going from 4.2 percent to more than nine.
A DIVIDED PARLIAMENT
Thus, taking into account the forecasts marked by the surveys, the so-called ‘red bloc’, made up of the main political formations that made up the previous Executive, would be around the parliamentary majority with 84 deputies, close to the absolute majority set at 90 parliamentarians.
On the other hand, the ‘blue bloc’ would be in the 74 deputies and notably affected by the fall of the Danish People’s Party, which would fall by around six percent, and especially by the collapse of Venstre, which from 21.1 percent percent of the previous elections would now be around 12 percent of the vote.
In this context, the key to governance could fall into the hands of the moderates, a formation founded by former Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen at the beginning of 2022 and which is currently not present in the Folketing (Danish Parliament).
Surveys estimate that the moderate, center-right party could exceed nine percent of the vote, thus reaching a figure close to 17 parliamentarians.
Another element to take into account will be the four deputies assigned to the Faroe Islands and Greenland, autonomous Danish territories in North Atlantic waters. Although, it is true, that the polls suggest that the future Executive could reach a majority without the need to have the support of those elected in these islands.
Thus, everything points to the fact that the Social Democrats would manage to retain the Executive of Denmark, where they have historically governed, although in the course of this century Venstre’s Conservatives have repeatedly prevailed, managing to govern the Nordic country for 14 years in several Executives since 2001 and with Anders Fogh Rasmussen (2001-2009) and the aforementioned Lars Lokke Rasmussen (2009-2011, and 2015-2019) as main figures.
MINK CRISIS
One of the main crises that the Frederiksen Executive has faced has had as its protagonist the country’s mink population, estimated at some 15 million specimens until November 2020, when the authorities were forced to exterminate it due to fear that they could spread the coronavirus.
That decision, harshly criticized by society and Parliament, was taken due to suspicions that COVID-19 had mutated by infecting minks – a species of the mustelid family -, raised for their precious fur. , of which Denmark is one of the main producing countries.
The controversy that arose led to the creation of a special commission in Parliament whose conclusions indicate that the arguments used by the Executive to justify the extermination of minks were “extremely misleading.” Frederiksen, who was accused of acting with “malice” and “bad faith”, warned that the mutation in minks could be more resistant to vaccines.
Then, from the opposition, he took advantage of the occasion to harshly criticize the government, whom he accused of seizing and killing the animals without having the authority to do so. The main collateral damage of the political crisis that arose as a result of this episode was the departure of Mogens Jensen from the Ministry of Agriculture.
However, despite the report, the Danish Parliament at the beginning of July refused to carry out an investigation against Frederiksen. From Venstre it was warned that, in case of achieving a majority in the chamber, it would promote investigations on the matter again.
