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The typical compromise/european fix is built as follows. When any crisis breaks out, the initial reflex of the Member States is to go their own way, competing with each other, even harming each other. The divisions between the countries (North against South, East against West) aggravate the problems and push the European Union to the precipice. On the brink of the abyss, the leaders of France and Germanywhich usually represent opposing positionsthey meet and arrive at a synthesis solution, dragging their respective sides. In injury time, the EU is saved.
Hence, the Paris-Berlin axis is considered the driving force behind European integration, despite its pluses and minuses. However, since Olaf Scholz came to power, the engine has broken down. Germany and France no longer agree on anythingnot even in the most urgent issues such as energy or defense. The chancellor’s obstructionism has reached such heights which has caused a frontal clash with Emmanuel Macron. The French president canceled a summit between the two governments scheduled for this week in Fontainebleau.
“Are things easy right now? No”admitted the French Minister of Finance, Bruno Le Maire, Germanophobe and convinced Germanophile, that demands pressing the button reset. “The war in Ukraine, the gas and energy question and the Chinese question must lead us to a strategic redefinition of relations between France and Germany,” Le Maire maintains. “It is not good for Germany or Europe for Germany to isolate itself”Macron denounced at the European Council last week.
[Todos contra Alemania: los líderes europeos presionan a Scholz para que acepte el tope al precio del gas]
As a result of the alarm generated in Brussels by the cancellation of the Fontainebleau meeting, Macron and Scholz announced an emergency bilateral meeting that was held this Wednesday at the Elysée Palace, in Paris. A meeting that has lasted three hours and that the two parties qualify as “constructive” and “friendly”. However, behind this staging of smiles and handshakes, the tension persists: there has been no statement to the press or joint statement, as is usual in this type of event.
“The first result of these tensions is that the european unit is showing visible cracks. Since Russia began its war of aggression against Ukraine, the display of unity has been a priority for both the Commission and the governments. Now, the two most important Member States are not capable of agreeing on a common position on the two most important issues most affected by the conflict: energy and defense,” Jacob Ross, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz also met before the European Council, but their relationship does not work
The list of grievances is very long. Macron reproaches Scholz for his persistent blocking of any European solution to the energy crisis: whether it be the cap on the price of imported gas, the ‘Europeanization’ of the Iberian exception to reduce electricity or the creation of a new anti-crisis fund similar to Next Generation. At the same time, the Government of Berlin has approved a unilateral and massive plan of 200,000 million in aid to come to the rescue of German companies, to the detriment of their European rivals. Paris considers that this could destroy the single market.
As for defense, the French president complains that Scholz allocates the extraordinary fund of 100,000 million that he announced after the outbreak of the war to acquire American weapons, instead of strengthening European military cooperation. Nor has the European anti-missile shield promoted by Germany in NATO with countries of Central and Eastern Europe, without the participation of France, Italy or Spain, gone down well in Paris.
[España se queda fuera del escudo antimisiles que promueve Alemania en la OTAN con otros 14 países]
“The French government is concerned that the war in Ukraine is shifting the balance of forces within the EU to the East, as Ukraine and Moldova have achieved candidate status and other Balkan countries already have it. Some in France fear that this will cement Germany’s dominance in the EU and that France and the Franco-German relationship will be left behind,” Ross said.
Chancellor Scholz also has cause for complaint against Paris. Among them, the Macron’s veto of the Midcat pipeline, which was to connect Catalonia with France through the Pyrenees. Berlin called for accelerating its construction in order to diversify alternative supply routes to Russian gas. In the end, the project has been buried and replaced by an underwater pipeline between Barcelona and Marseille. Scholz has celebrated the tripartite agreement between Spain, France and Portugal, but it is clear that the BarMar will not arrive in time for the current crisis.
To the fight between Paris and Berlin we must add the coming to power of Eurosceptic governments in Italy or Sweden, which are added to those of Hungary or Poland. “These trends, combined with the inability of France and Germany to reach substantial commitments, could lead to an explosive combination just as the EU heads into winter, inflation remains high and Russia will do everything it can to deepen divisions between France, Germany and the rest of the Member States”, warns the researcher of the German Council on Foreign Relations.
