Netanyahu, an uncertain vote and the two-state solution

On the eve of the November 1 elections, Gadi Baltiansky, director general of the Geneva Initiative, applauds Lapid’s speech at the UN that revived the central theme of the Palestinian question. The status quo is “negative”, the establishment appears to be “slowly waking up” to the issues raised by the outgoing prime minister. Doubts about the participation of the Arab electorate. New acts of violence in the West Bank: more victims and wounded.

Milan () – Even if you live “in the land of the prophets” it is impossible to “predict” the outcome of the general elections November first in Israel. However, in these weeks of campaigning – and in part, thanks to Lapid’s speech at the UN – there has been talk of “the two-state solution”. In this interview with , Gadi Baltiansky, former spokesman for former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and CEO of Geneva Initiative (a joint Israeli-Palestinian project to end the conflict), discusses the current uncertain landscape, which could culminate in further institutional paralysis. The “constant” element in this repeated appeal to the polls, he explains, is “the controversy” surrounding Benjamin Netanyahu: he wants to return to power but even if he were to win at the polls, he might not achieve a solid majority in the Knesset, the Parliament Israeli.

In recent years, the confrontation around Netanyahu (and the corruption trial that has him as a defendant) has overshadowed “substantial and important issues” such as the Palestinian question. For this reason, the outgoing Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, must be credited with reactivating the issue, causing “an important change” at the strategic level. As a consequence, he received a “higher approval rating” in the polls. “Politicians,” he observes, “seem to be waking up, albeit very slowly, to the issues raised by Lapid: most Israelis understand the status quo to be negative […] and they want to hear a clear vision and blueprint. Because the alternative is the continuing spiral of violence, with new victims: today there was a new episode, with a balance of six Palestinians killed and 21 wounded in a series of incursions by the Israeli army in Nablus and other areas of the West Bank. These operations risk further exacerbating tension, especially among young people exasperated by the economic crisis and the occupation of land by hundreds of thousands of settlers. “The solution of the two States”, remembers our interlocutor, “enjoys a clear plurality and majority”.

Below is the interview with Gadi Baltiansky, General Director of the Geneva Initiative:

Israel is headed for its fifth vote in three years. With what prospects do voters go to the polls?

The number of election rounds is, of course, frustrating for the nation and is a reflection of continuing political instability, as well as a mirror of the deep divisions in Israeli society. And there is no guarantee that the results of the next election will be more decisive or durable than those of the recent past. For voters, the only constant in recent years has been the centrality of a very simple but incredibly divisive political controversy: support for or strong opposition to former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The fact that this issue has become a priority over all others means that substantive and important issues – such as the policies and choices of the various parties on the Palestinian question – often end up taking a backseat.

In this regard, Prime Minister Yair Lapid, during a speech at the United Nations, he refocused the speech on the two-state solution: how much was said about it in the election campaign?

The Prime Minister’s speech at the UN General Assembly marks an important change in strategy. Instead of avoiding the issue or limiting himself to making generic speeches without a concrete answer to the two-state solution – which has been the strategy followed for years by the centrist parties in Israel – Lapid underlined his support for the hypothesis during a conference press release addressed to the Israeli public before his speech. Having done it at the time of the electoral campaign makes it impossible to separate this decision from the agon and the political context. In fact, Lapid’s approval rating in the polls went up after his speech. Politicians seem to be waking up, albeit very slowly, to the issues raised by Lapid: most Israelis understand that status is negative for Israel, support a two-state solution, and want to hear a clear vision and plan that prevents statehood. binational [o un solo Estado, ndr].

And what support does the two-state solution have today in Israel? Is there, at least at the citizen level, a desire for real dialogue to achieve the goal or at least discuss it seriously?

The latest public opinion poll conducted by Geneva Initiative in June 2022 shows that 51% of Israelis support the resumption of negotiations on the two-state solution, while 39% are against. When respondents are asked to choose between different political approaches to the conflict, the two-state solution enjoys a clear plurality and majority. Next, the most popular option is that of a single state without true equality of rights for all citizens (supported by 18% of those surveyed). Considering the meager progress towards peace over the last 15 years, it is truly surprising how high support it continues to receive [la perspectiva de dos estados]. On the other hand, those who oppose it have failed in all this time to offer a viable alternative that offers a better and more secure future for Israelis. And also this makes people go back to the only real perspective on the table.

One week before the vote, what are the central issues for the electorate and how much “weight” will the Arab vote have?

At the moment, the political and electoral debate in Israel is focused on very specific political and institutional personalities: for example, the aforementioned former Prime Minister Netanyahu, or the far-right political leader Itamar Ben Gvir, convicted of terrorism in the past, Personal support or dislike for particular political actors is playing a much more obvious and paramount role than political questions, the big issues. That said, conflict is and remains an issue that weighs heavily during an electoral round: whether it is framed as an issue of security, democracy, or simply to sow hatred and fear. The others are fairly common to all past elections: cost of living, economy, crime. As for the Arab electorate and its weight in the polls -we are talking about 20% of the population with a planned representation in parliament of around 6/7% of the total- the number of turnout will be crucial to decide the overall result of the vote. This is also one of the reasons why we are hearing more speeches and reflections on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the two-state solution, among parties that are interested in engaging the Arab electorate and encouraging them to vote.

In conclusion, which country will come out of the polls and what impact will it have on the Palestinian people?

Although I live in the land of the prophets, at this time it is not possible for me to make a plausible prediction about the outcome. What is clear is that the next government cannot continue with the decades-old policy of trying to manage the conflict without moving towards a solution, and expecting the security situation to remain stable. The Palestinians also prefer the two-state solution to any other option, but this preference is declining significantly over time. Responsible Israeli leaders must ask themselves difficult questions about the future of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. For this, we greatly need stability and political vision. To date, it is unknown whether the next elections will offer adequate responses in this regard. But the challenges posed by a Palestinian population feeling a growing level of despair at their shattered dreams as a nation cannot wait much longer. Whatever the scenario, the role of the international community – in promoting moral values, international law, strategic interests and friendship with the Israeli and Palestinian peoples – can be crucial in bringing peace and security to the Middle East.

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