Will he be able to attack Donbas and defend the southern ports at the same time?

The situation says enough about the difficulties that Russia is encountering and how important it is to measure each step. From the outset, Vladimir Putin himself gave the order on Monday to rest the troops that had just taken Lisichansk and Sievierodonetsk, with the idea of ​​reusing them later in the battle for control of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. There seems to be some consensus that, since April, Russia has stopped making gross mistakes on the strategic side. He wanted to conquer the Ukraine in one fell swoop in February, simultaneously attacking kyiv, Kharkov, Kherson, Odessa, Melitopol, Zaporizhia, Mariupol and everything in front of him, and thus he was going nowhere.

Since the beginning of the so-called “second phase” of the “special military operation”, a full-fledged recomposition of objectives and tactics, Russia is opting for slow, coordinated advances, that they do not expose their troops to possible counter-offensives and that they in turn protect the supply lines, completely exposed in the first days. The big problem Russia faces is that, at this rate, and although more small victories are still expected throughout the summer, only the conquest of Donbas is already going to absorb all their forcesrenouncing his true initial objective: to change the kyiv government for one more akin to his interests.

[Vladimir Putin felicita y agradece a los militares por la victoria y la “liberación” de Lugansk]

What the obsession with Donbas implies

The other big problem is number. How long can Russia hold out in the Ukraine without a general mobilization? With an estimate of about 100,000 casualties, including prisoners, seriously wounded and deadthe Russian army has lost practically a generation of soldiers in the conquest of a very scarce and very unusable territory, since they themselves have been in charge of destroying everything before occupying it.

In this sense, the big question is whether Russia can continue attacking Donetsk, as everything seems to do, give rest to different regiments, and defend the southern ports. Do you have troops and weapons for that? Is it worth it in any case? Are your priorities correct? Everything indicates that the Donbas is an inalienable objective. It is not in vain that they have been at war for eight years, that is, it is nothing new. Now, is it a valuable military objective in strategic terms?

If Russia really just wanted to “liberate” these two provinces and leave it there, the war could be over relatively soon.. The point is that they want to form a corridor linking the conquered Donbas with Transnistria. In other words, they want to take Artemivsk, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, three very hard nuts to crack, successfully defend Kherson and Melitopol from Ukrainian attacks and internal dissidence… and somehow conquer Odessa, something that, until now, has been completely out of his range.

The idea that Putin has in mind is that, in the end, the West will abandon Ukraine, stop sending weapons and Russia will prevail by sheer numbers, but even if that were to happen, what price is Moscow going to pay for a victory like this? And, above all, if he chooses, what kind of victory does he want: the one that expands his “living space” to the west with the conquest of Donbas or the one that facilitates the union with Crimea through the different ports of the south?

[De los Sudetes y Ucrania a Bielorrusia y el Anschluss: Putin replica la estrategia de Hitler en 1938]

Why the south is so important for Ukraine

Sooner or later, Putin is likely to have to make that choice. What would hurt Ukraine most in the long run would be if Russia became strong in the south. Continue the war of attrition in the east, along the lines of recent years, trying not to lose the occupied territory… and trying to strengthen their regiments located around Crimea, where control of the crops is at stake, both in their harvesting and in their transportation. Russia would thus consolidate the maritime blockade to which it is subjecting Ukraine, seriously threatening the local economy and causing famine on half the planet.

At first, when sitting down at a negotiating table, these arguments seem more powerful than those of a village more or less in the Donbas, but Russia works out of pride and pride does not understand logic. After taking control of the T1302 highway, which has cost them so much effort, and having finally taken Bilohorivka, anxiety will invite them to head towards Artemivsk first, and, if successful, they will try to close the pincer on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. , the Ukrainian military nuclei in the area.

It will not be easy. Until now, with some exceptions such as the Zolote maneuver, the Russian army has been chasing shadows. They occupy territories, yes, but they do not take prisoners or harm the enemy with the intensity that one would expect from such a bloody war. Although Ukraine probably took longer than necessary to abandon its positions in Lugansk, everything indicates that it has finally done so in an orderly manner and successfully covering the rear. All those troops are right now in the vicinity of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, prepared for a fierce fight.

To this we must add the constant attacks of the HIMARS, the missile launchers sent by the United States, on the Russian rear, exploding several weapons stores. Russia needs to take Donbas because that is what it has promised its people, but, strictly speaking, there is not much to gain there. These are terribly damaged industrial areas that will take time to rebuild. Losing everything Russia has lost to gain only that would be devastating for Putin and his government. You need something bigger. Something like Kharkiv to the north or Zaporizhia to the south. Something like total control of the Sea of ​​Azov and the Black Sea, with all its ports included.

[El intercambio de Putin: entregará a Brittney Griner si le devuelven al ‘mercader de la muerte’]

Now, the question is the same as at the beginning: do you have the means to do so? Without mobilization, no. And to promote a general mobilization, we must call war “war”… and recognize that goals are not being met. As long as this does not happen, Ukraine has plenty of territory to wait and counterattack when the enemy falters. It is not understood that tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are fighting on scorched earth while Kherson is already a stone’s throw from the Ukrainian troops. I said, too much pride at stake and little overview.