We are at the end of the eighth month of the Russian war in the Ukraine. And the outcome seems to be getting closer, with the imminent arrival of the “general winter” in which all Russian wars -whether offensive or defensive, invasion or encirclement- traditionally freeze, sink and dissipate, as happened in the ancient times with the Tartar hordes or in more recent times, with the Nazi divisions, the conquest of Siberia or the shipwreck of Afghanistan.
Putin announced what is the general condition to resolve the conflict, after a month of dramatic and riotous mobilization of the population, following the national emergency decree that the runet (the limping Russian Internet) defined as a “semi-war situation”: poluvoennoe polupoloženie. The grotesque and poorly literate new head of the army at the front, General Surovikin, intervened on live television threatening chaos and looking anywhere but at the camera. In his speech, he upstaged Defense Minister Šojgu, the “scapegoat” for Russian military mistakes (he himself, after all, did not even do military service), sacrificed on the altar of re-launching the war every week , even though he formally remains in office, as Putin’s doormat.
Occupied and annexed areas are being evacuated, fearing a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and perhaps to prepare the territory for nuclear annihilation. A demonstrative action that, however, would devastate both countries, finally turning them into a unified and deserted territory, de-Nazified from the root. The rest of Ukraine, waiting to suffer the same fate, is about to face winter darkness and frost, the shadows of which will spread across Europe. What are the possible ways out of this doomsday scenario?
stop the war
The first solution, undoubtedly the most desirable, is to put an end to the process of destruction of cities, monuments, lives and families on both sides. It is the incessant plea of Pope Francis, “stop this madness!” It is the wish of those who are under the bombardment of Iranian suicide drones, of those who see their sons and husbands going to death for a meaningless cause. , of all the States and populations involved in the war, and even of those that are apparently safe from it. And that’s the least likely solution.
To stop the war, you have to make peace proposals, start negotiations, accept compromises. As Cardinal Zuppi, a former negotiator in Mozambique, confirms, this means provoking discontent and resentment on both sides, who regard the mediators as traitors. Not only popes and cardinals, but also presidents from all latitudes propose themselves for the role and then withdraw, like the Turkish Erdogan or the French Macron. Or they supervise impossible negotiations from above, like the American Biden or the Chinese Xi Jinping, worried about staying firm on their pedestals. Who will be able to convince Putin and Zelensky to meet, and with what arguments? In a month the G-20 meeting will be held in Bali, where this impasse will in any case be insurmountable.
Any possibility of concession to the two parties is condemned by broad sectors of public opinion in all countries: doubts are exaggerated and proposals are branded as radical pro-Putinism or staunch Atlantic loyalty, without the possibility of meeting. Putin is absolute evil, or the West is absolute evil, forgetting that for thirty years these absolute evils have fed and fattened each other. And no one can claim to be exempt from mutual responsibility: whether NATO has provoked Russia, or Russia has rejected universal harmony, or Ukraine has persecuted those who speak Russian, or China has inspired those who want to destroy Russia. United States, all this is true and false at the same time. However, if one wants peace, he must look to the present and the future. Then there will be time to talk about all the past, recent and remote.
win the war
The second solution, the one currently on the table, is the destruction of the adversary, even before proclaiming victory. Russia wants to finish off Ukraine, instead of annexing all of its territory. The West wants to reduce Russia to an insignificant wasteland, so that it stops causing annoyance to the markets and financial centers, rather than to the populations and social institutions themselves. The arms race involves all the countries in the world capable of producing them, fattening the pockets of those who supply them, as occurs in all wars, which have always been one of the main sources of profit.
The victory is not only the expected result of the Kremlin’s war efforts, but the ideological foundation of its entire history, which aims to show how necessary Russia is for the whole world, to save it from all evils. In the distorted interpretation of its leaders, beginning with the septuagenarian adolescent dictator, the Russian victory is cloaked in apocalyptic meanings, and it only occurs if the entire world is defeated, not just the opponent in turn. Alone against the whole world: this means to be victorious, and if the world is shattered, this makes the triumphant sense of this war more evident.
In the Western vision, victory is instead an inalienable property: every country and every people that launches to attack the Great Globalization is defeated from the outset, whether it is Russia or Afghanistan, Syria or Venezuela, and loses the right to exist. This interpretation also ends up revealing an immature psychology, a self-esteem that does not adapt to social relationships. And the best example of this endemic fragility is precisely the noble and presumptuous Europe, the greatest source of wars throughout the centuries, always divided on every decision and position to adopt.
It is not a question of recovering the occupied territories, including Crimea, nor of extending NATO, establishing colonies on the Moon and Mars. It is about realizing that the search for victory -in addition to being the greatest favor for those who aspire to easy money- is also the best guarantee of perennial division and the defeat of any ideal, be it progressive or traditionalist, homophobic or guarantor, secular or religious.
continue the war
What no one wants, but which will probably be the real solution, is for the war to continue indefinitely. The war strategies themselves, even though they are elaborated and redefined over and over again, and analyzed by incessantly prolific world experts, do not seem to show definitive scenarios on either side, neither in a military sense nor in favor of pacifism. Russia and Ukraine, after all, have been at war since the origins of Kievan Rus’, representing the two sides of a people, or an agglomeration of ethnic groups, that has always straddled East and West.
Russia seems unable to achieve its goal of conquering Ukraine and overthrowing its government, annexing it as a “southern region” or Malorossija, as it was previously called. This objective has failed since February, and the continuation of the war has shown increasingly hesitant and insignificant objectives, such as the annexation of devastated and indecisive areas. The mobilization, the permanent state of war, the nuclear threat seem more like justifications for never stopping, for not admitting defeat, for perpetuating the propaganda of a universal mission of salvation. In a sense, Russia has already won: she forced the world to look to her side, and she will only uphold this approach.
The overthrow of the Putin regime also seems unlikely, both because of the suffocating state of such a dictatorship and because of the absolute lack of alternatives between the Kremlin circle and the other expressions, central or regional, of Russian politics. The unrest of the population will increase, especially in peripheral regions and ethnic groups other than Russian, but this also seems to be a process without beginning or end.
Ukraine has achieved more than it ever dreamed of in the many evolutions and revolutions of the 30-year post-Soviet period. It has finally asserted its self-awareness as a nation, it has become a symbol of Europe and the West in defense of freedom and democracy, it has the support and protection of NATO and the strongest armies. She will have to rebuild the destroyed cities, again with the large grants that have already been promised, and will continue to press Russia in every disputed town, even facing local extermination with atomic weapons. But she will not be able to reconquer Donbass and Crimea, at least not in the near future.
The war continues, locally and globally, and we are all involved, wishing for peace and dreaming of victory. We must learn to live in war, using the weapons that correspond to what we truly want, stripping ourselves of hypocritical masks and admitting guilt and merit. War is life, it asks us to adopt a position and commit ourselves every day and in every situation, imploring the Lord of hosts to come among us again as the Light of the nations, accepting the Cross in order to announce the Resurrection.
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