The forecasts for the European and American markets worsen and those of China improve
Oct. 18 () –
The recovery of the global levels of car registrations and production throughout the world will be delayed, at least, until the end of 2024, according to estimates by the rating agency S&P.
The calculations of the deadlines for the recovery to pre-Covid levels of the sector’s sales and production at a global level are due to the “deterioration of macroeconomic conditions”, the company has argued in its report.
In the best scenario, it foresees a stagnation of global sales of passenger cars and a growth in production of between 3% and 4%, although analysts have worsened their forecasts for the United States (USA) and Europe, while those of the Chinese market have improved, which they have branded as “thriving”, due to its resilience “despite its zero Covid position”.
Specifically, “declining” economic conditions in Europe and the United States are the main factors behind the decline in previous S&P estimates for these markets.
In the United States, the agency anticipates a drop of between 4% and 6% in passenger car registrations this year (compared to the 2% increase estimated last March) and in Europe it foresees a drop of 10%.
The decline in the United States will lead the country’s automobile industry to record minimum volumes “not seen since 2013”, forecasts based on “weaker” demand due to the “slight recession” that it considers the United States will have in 2023 (including a “modest” GDP growth of 0.2%).
The outlook for Europe according to the credit rating agency points to falls in sales volumes to their “lowest point in more than two decades” due to the indirect impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“In 2023, we expect the European economy to slow down sharply, with GDP growth falling from 1.8% to 0.3%, and we cannot exclude the possibility of a full-blown recession. has plummeted after a dramatic rise in the cost of living, particularly higher food and energy prices, while the European Central Bank has advanced interest rate hikes to fight record inflation. analysts argued.
Meanwhile, in China it is expected that a rebound in consumption “should support” sales growth in 2022, although S&P has highlighted that its policies against Covid “add long-term uncertainty”.
In addition, the tax reduction implemented in the Asian country for the sale of certain vehicles between June and December has meant a “strong rebound in the consumption of passenger cars in the country of between 20% and 30% in the last three months”.
“We raised our March forecast for China with passenger car sales growth to between 4% and 6% for 2022 from 1% and 3% previously. With demand buoyed in the second half of this year and our Expectation that the economic recovery will remain stalled in the first quarter of 2023, we anticipate a slowdown in sales growth of between 0% and 2% in 2023”, they added.
In this sense, the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus for the purchase of vehicles could also favor this last prediction, S&P has added.
