The continuity of Liz Truss as UK premier, in check

The surprise death of Elizabeth II overshadowed and delayed the start of the new Government in the United Kingdom. The urgency lay in addressing the crisis in the cost of living and issuing the financial plan to alleviate the ravages of the economy. And the only action of the Government generated a new political storm.

This was felt in the markets and investors, who began to withdraw their resources from the country, so much so that they put the stability of the pension funds of millions of people at risk and this led to a historic fall, with antecedents five decades ago, of the powerful sterling pound in its price against the dollar, and prompted a significant increase in the cost of public debt of the European nation.

The pressure for Liz Truss, the third woman to become prime minister and the fourth person to assume the post since the Brexit referendum in 2016, came not only from the blow to economic indicators, but also from the lack of credibility in her government. and the premature loss of their political capital.

Since she was elected, the premiere He has not had a week without the crisis in the economy being the protagonist and the common denominator of the public scene.

Both she and the then finance minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, dedicated themselves to putting out, without much success, the fire caused by that “mini-budget”, while the economy continued to sink.

Finally, with the warning that if he didn’t step back he risked coming close to the abyss, Truss began to modify his financial plan. But his decision had little impact on calm markets.

Kwarteng, who had lost his credibility as finance minister, was returned from a meeting of finance ministers and central bank chiefs organized by the International Monetary Fund in Washington.

Hours before his dismissal and from the United States capital, Kwarteng had told the media that he was not going “anywhere”, but his fate had already been decided from London.

Truss sacrificed him to save his failing government 38 days after he arrived in Downing Street, appointing Jeremy Hunt as finance minister in his place. Who, although he has no experience in fiscal policy or public finance, is a veteran in key positions in different governments.

Hunt is, above all, synonymous with unity, seriousness and stability within the conservatives or ‘tories’, but additionally a type of guarantee for the markets.

Truss: in charge, but without power

In an unprecedented event, one of those that have abounded for months in British politics, the new finance minister gave a statement from his office, accompanied by the Union Jack flag.

He announced, words more, words less, that he was destroying the economic plan that the prime minister had presented three weeks earlier, a fact with a profound impact on Truss’s political future.

Hunt said that one of the main measures of the “mini-budget” that gave a type of subsidy for energy bills for two years, will now only be for six months, during the coming winter.

In other words, this winter the Government will pay the difference in energy bills, but for next year, society will have to take care of its bill.

In addition, he spoke of cutting public spending, which was one of the claims of the experts.

Hunt’s image is unmistakable. To restore stability to the country, a new beginning is needed and he seems to embody it.

The truth is that Liz Truss has neither authority nor credibility nor political capital: she burned it down in 40 days, and this, without a doubt, puts the stability of her Executive in serious trouble.

The question that surrounds today is if once again the prime minister is in office but without power and if his departure is a matter of time, a rumor whose outcome, in any sense, could happen this week.

Tory Rebellion

Truss is trying to stay afloat, buy time, but it is not known how much more time he has left in Downing Street, especially now that the conspiracies to make changes in the way in which the prime minister is changed without him having immunity are already public. guaranteed for one year.

The local media is full of stories that more and more Conservative MPs are sending letters to the powerful 1922 Committee to pressure Truss out.

Said conservative committee can initiate an internal process to decide whether or not Truss continues to be the head of the Government and the party. If 50% of the party members vote in favor of leaving her, a motion of censure would be presented against the premierewho would be forced to abandon his duties.

Although the number of letters received to initiate this procedure is a secret, if a significant number of deputies request the change of rules, this will be a reality. And Liz Truss would be in a very dangerous position.

For this reason, his political allies are promoting meetings with the deputies to try to reassure us. But it is not known to what extent these can be successful.

Truss knows that the key to staying in office, even if the majority of the population is against him, is to regain the trust of his co-supporters. He doesn’t have it easy.

The magazine ‘The Spectator,’ which is a mandatory reading publication due to its closeness to conservatives, has proposed several scenarios to overcome this new crisis. And most of them leave Truss out of the Government.

But ‘The Spectator’ suggests that she can continue fighting. In other scenarios, she talks about a caretakerwhich would be a caretaker prime minister, the return of Boris Johnson to power or a government of Rishi Sunak, his opponent during the conservative primaries and from whom Truss snatched the keys to Downing Street.

In politics, one week could be definitive for Truss’s future, although there are already predictions that there could be a new prime minister in December.

Beyond the internal crisis of the Conservative Party, the serious thing is that for several months the country has not had a leader who is dedicated to urgent and fundamental issues for the majority, beyond the ‘Tory’ ranks.

The controversies of the Johnson government did not allow him to govern and they are not leaving Truss either.

The ‘tories’, who have been in government for twelve years, are planning and plotting the next step very carefully because they know that if they call a general election they could lose power to the Labor Party, which according to the polls would obtain an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons if the elections were to take place now.