the Russian Federation could disintegrate

The “free peoples” are in favor of independence. Russia is seen as an “artificial” construction. The biggest push comes from Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. The central government represses. Everything will depend on the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict.

Moscow () – One of the possible consequences of the Ukrainian war is the uprising of the peoples of the Federation against the central government in Moscow. A situation that could be unleashed, given the uncertainty that exists in a Russia subjected to the counterattack of the kyiv army. Some specialists consulted by Idel.Realii highlight this possibility. The “free peoples” have already brought together their representatives in exile several times. The first time was in May in Warsaw; the second, at the end of July in Prague and the third in recent days, in the Polish city of Gdansk.

These demonstrations were attended by a large number of activists and politicians who spoke in favor of secession from Russia, provoking very resentful reactions in the media and in the statements of Russian leaders. The director of the Independent Institute of Russian Regions, Lithuanian Andrius Almanis, presented the “Naiznanku” (Overturning) project in Gdansk, explaining how real is the threat of a fracture between the ethnic groups that make up Russia.

According to Almanis, “This is a process that is not artificial at all; in fact, the Russian Federation is an artificial entity, and when the oppressive force of the center weakens, the centrifugal tendencies are set in motion almost automatically.” In regions with a strong ethnic stamp – from the Caucasus to Siberia, but also in the regions of northern Europe and Asia – the idea of ​​independence has been deeply rooted for centuries. Almanis himself stresses that this evolution depends above all on the possible Russian failure in Ukraine.

“Even in the densest layers of asphalt cracks are created, from which shoots arise,” says the Lithuanian activist. “But now it is not just cracks, but abysses, and they are getting wider. Among the “identity” regions and republics, Tatarstan undoubtedly stands out, together with its neighbors and “relatives” of Bashkortostan, both in a crucial geographical position in the Uralic zone, on the border between Europe and Asia. There are many small towns, especially in the Siberian lands, that are at risk of disappearing and that are now trying to find themselves after the earthquake created by the wars and mobilizations of recent times.

One of the “internal frontiers” of the struggle for the liberation of peoples is the linguistic and cultural question. A cause with which the new leaders of the protests identify, who are committed to the defense of national languages ​​in school and university programs. This is a little-known topic beyond national and regional borders, and the forums that follow are intended to inform international public opinion about the aspirations of the “free peoples” of Russia.

It is no coincidence that at the end of September two bills were debated in the Moscow Duma to introduce new sanctions and apply the definition of “extremism” to any form of dissemination of information, images or symbols that “question the territorial integrity of Russia “. Showing maps in which the regions appear separately is grounds for arrest: whoever does so could be sentenced to 15 days in prison and pay a fine of at least one million rubles (20,000 euros).

A Bashkir activist, Airat Dilmukhamedov, was arrested in recent days for virtually participating in the Gdansk forum. The authorities considered that his intervention on video was an “incitement to subversion against the integrity of the nation”. The Ufa court ruled that the nationalist organization “Baškort” is extremist and banned its activities throughout the territory of the republic. Many other activists and exponents of local cultures are persecuted. Such is the case of the Tatar writer Fauzja Bajramova, the publicist of the Komi region (northern European Russia) Nikolaj Udoratin or the president of the association of Finno-Ugric peoples Petr Tultaev, among many others.

The home front is widening, even where there are no loud episodes of protest and no known leaders. And it could explode even louder than the bombs on the Kerch bridge: a sign of Russia’s fragility at war against external enemies, but also against itself.