With three weeks to go until President Aoun’s term ends, the appointment of his successor and a new executive is still a long way off. A new vote is scheduled for tomorrow in the Chamber, although it is unlikely that there will be a quorum. Attempts at compromise that seem more like immobility and the will to maintain the status quo.
Beirut () – While the international community, led by France, the United States and Saudi Arabia, is impatient for the election of a new President of the Republic, it would seem that the Lebanese have a long time ahead of them. With three weeks to go until the end of the mandate of the head of state Michel Aoun (October 31), and the country of cedars continues to drift: it still does not have a new president or, worse still, a new government. And despite the efforts of Saudi Arabia and France, represented by the French Foreign Minister, Catherine Colonna – who is expected in Lebanon before the end of the week – it seems very unlikely that there will be anything new and the situation changes radically in the short space of time established by the Constitution for the elections.
From the constitutional point of view, the legislator had foreseen a situation of this type. The Constitution (Article 75) provides that, in the event of a presidential vacancy, the powers and prerogatives of the Head of State are provisionally assumed by the Council of Ministers. Many believe that there will not be a complete institutional vacancy, because an interim government is still in office to deal with ordinary business, headed by Nagib Mikati. And the Parliament elected last May is fully operational in its various sessions.
However, some, such as Gebran Bassil, president of the Free Patriotic Movement (CPL), question the capacity of a resigning government to assume provisional presidential functions. In September, it was even asked that the head of state not leave the presidential palace if a new executive cannot be formed with the confidence of the Chamber. Although the last term has not yet expired, the possibility still exists, and it is easy to imagine the institutional confusion that would be created in that case.
Of course, the prime minister and the head of state have met several times to reach an agreement on the new form of government. But these efforts collide with the demands of the CPL, which intends to replace some ministers to ensure that at least a third of the members of the future executive are faithful to it and thus obtain the right of veto in all matters that require a vote. But Mikati is adamantly opposed to this perspective, because he considers that it would end up prolonging, albeit indirectly, Aoun’s mandate.
On the parliamentary front, the House is due to meet tomorrow, for the second time since early September, to elect President Aoun’s successor. But this session has no chance of success for two reasons: firstly, the CPL bloc (21 deputies) will not participate, because the date of October 13 symbolizes the expulsion of General Michel Aoun from the Baabda Palace by the Syrian army in 1990. And secondly, because none of the two large blocks present still has, each on their own, the 86 votes necessary (equivalent to two thirds of the 128 deputies of the Chamber) to elect the president in the first round with a two-thirds majority, as provided by the Constitution.
The Magna Carta specifies that in the second round the president is elected by an absolute majority (65 votes), but both parties have the possibility of preventing the quorum of two-thirds of the Chamber, so that this second round cannot take place. Despite this handicap, the Saudi Arabian ambassador, Walid Boukhari, is multiplying his visits at this stage to support Mouawad’s candidacy and convince the undecided members of the Sunni community who, in the previous session, deposited a ballot paper with the word “Lebanon”. In short, at least 86 deputies should join and support this candidacy, and it is very difficult to reach that level.
Everything indicates that the next Lebanese president will necessarily be the result of a compromise. To date, the only one who seems capable of winning the elections is the army commander, General Joseph Aoun. However, the Constitution stipulates that he cannot be elected if he has not resigned from his official duties two years in advance, and therefore it would be necessary to amend the Constitution. In case of a vacancy in the presidential office, this provision falls automatically and a constitutional reform is no longer necessary. Some bet on this formula, hoping that the duration of the presidential vacancy will be as short as possible.
It remains to be seen whether the bloc that supports Michel Mouawad’s candidacy changes its position at the prospect of electing a military man. The European Union seems to have aligned itself with the prospect of a compromise candidacy. In a joint message published on September 27, the EU ambassadors stated that “The only realistic chance that exists today to get Lebanon out of the red zone is about to be lost. […] due to a lack of will for commitment, vision and leadership.” The question is whether anyone heeds this warning.
