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Alexander Lukashenko has been for Vladimir Putin the accomplice necessary for his “special operation” in the Ukraine. Only at the beginning of the invasion, the Belarusian leader allowed the troops of his Russian counterpart to enter his country and spread out throughout the 800 kilometers from border which it shares with Ukraine. From there, several Kremlin military columns reached the outskirts of kyiv in less than 24 hours and, from there, more than 70 missiles were fired during the first week of conflict.
Although Belarusian involvement is obvious, the Lukashenko regime has worked hard to mark certain distances. “We have not taken part in the hostilities and we are not going to,” she said in March. Later, however, he acknowledged that he was “participating“, but clarified that “neither had he killed anyone nor had he sent soldiers anywhere”.
Now, with the recent Russian military defeats on the battlefield and the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian provinces, the war has entered a new phase. And Putin, isolated abroad and weakened at home, has managed to get his main (and only) partner to expand his participation in the contest.
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This very Monday, Minsk announced the deployment of a military contingent alongside Russian forces in the vicinity of kyiv. “Attacks on our territory are not only being discussed today in Ukraine, but are also being planned,” Lukashenko said without providing evidence.
He took the opportunity to warn the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, that “neither he nor the rest of the lunatics dares to touch with his dirty hands even a meter of Belarusian territory“. And he added: “We had been preparing for this for years. If necessary, we will respond.”
Ukrainian servicemen attend joint drills on the border with Belarus.
Neighboring Poland has not been slow to react and has urged Polish citizens of Belarus to leave the country. “We recommend that you leave the territory through available commercial routes or by private means,” they collect on the Government website.
Lukashenko’s decision couldn’t come at a better time for Putin. On Saturday, an explosive partially blew up the Kerch bridge in Crimea, the peninsula illegally annexed in 2014.
Poland urges its citizens of Belarus to leave the country
That attack unleashed the fury of the Russian president and, this Monday, as revenge, he launched a large-scale air attack in major Ukrainian cities. At least 11 people have died and more than 64 have been injured during the bombings.
A few hours later, Putin has returned to the threats and has indicated that there will be “firm responses” to the “terrorist attacks”. Answers in which, from now on, Lukashenko could participate, even if that puts him in a very fragile political position.
Lukashenko’s weakness
The regime of the president of Belarus, known as “the last dictator of Europe”, was shaken two years ago, when the population took to the streets to demand free elections. Lukashenko then managed to put down the protests using brute force, but especially thanks to the help of the Kremlin. Discontent, however, persists in a country that has been ruled by the same person for a quarter of a century.
“Lukashenko’s position is very fragile. People have energy and desire to bring about democratic changes,” explained the exiled Belarusian activist and winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskayato the agency Reuters.
“Lukashenko’s position is very fragile. People have energy and desire to bring about democratic changes”
To this is added that the sanctions imposed by the West for the repression of the regime and for its support for Putin’s war have hit the economy hard. And not only citizens have been affected: punishments directly target politicians and high-ranking military officials.
This has weakened support for the Minsk leader from domestic allies. Many, for example, have openly opposed to support the invasion of Ukraine to prevent Belarus from being further isolated from the international community and raising the specter of the protests.
Because Putin’s “special operation” is also not popular with Belarusians. According to a Chatham House poll, only 5% were in favor of sending troops to support Russia, while about 70% indicated their refusal to participate in the conflict.
Belarusian President Lukashenko chairs a meeting in Minsk.
military complications
“A weakened Kremlin means a weakened LukashenkoTsikhanuskaya told Reuters. And the truth is that if the protests broke out in Belarus as in 2020, it would most likely not be able to count on the financial and military support of Moscow to stay in power.
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Not to mention the complications that arise when actively participating in the contest of his ally. most of Belarusian army troops they are conscripts doing compulsory military service, which means they are citizens who could share social unrest and even try to topple the current regime if they were forced to go to the front in another country.
He is left with the country’s special operations forces, a group of 4,000 and 6,000 officersaccording to Washington Post. However, they participated in the repression of the protests two years ago and still function today. as a deterrent for social mobilizations. In this sense, renouncing these troops would mean being unprotected within their own borders.
