The looming midterm elections in November, in which control of both houses of the United States Congress is closely contested, could have significant consequences for the biggest foreign policy challenge currently facing the Biden administration: the U.S. invasion of Ukraine. Russia.
Since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine in February, the United States and its allies, including most NATO countries, have been funneling aid and weapons into the country to help prop up the government. and repel invaders.
While the American public still maintains broad support for Ukraine, and relief bills have passed with large bipartisan majorities, a vocal minority of Republican lawmakers, backed by several influential voices in the broader conservative movement, have criticized to the federal government, saying it is spending too much and potentially prolonging the conflict.
Pressure on American politics
Now, some experts question the degree to which that minority could influence US politics if the party wins the House of Representatives, the Senate or both in November.
“I think that is the most important thing for many people in Washington who support what we have been doing in Ukraine,” he told the VOA Conor Savoy, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Savoy said a significant number of Republican lawmakers who have voted against aid to Ukraine so far, including many of the 57 who voted against a $40 billion aid package in May, have done so because of the concern about the lack of oversight of spending. But others include many self-styled populists in the style of former President Donald Trump, who are instinctively suspicious of foreign aid spending, even when supported by party leaders.
“They don’t like this,” Savoy said. “They think it’s money in a foreign rat hole.”
While there has also been some Democratic opposition to Ukraine spending, resistance in that party has been far less. Combined with broad Republican support, Democratic majorities have been able to push through relief packages.
determined resistance
Things are not certain to change if the GOP takes power in Congress, given that most Republicans still support helping Ukraine. However, it is important to remember that in Congress, a determined minority can often thwart the will of the majority.
A decade ago, while the Republican Party ran the House of Representatives, a core group of conservatives, the Freedom Caucussystematically stymied his leadership’s efforts to reach budget deals with then-President Barack Obama, prompting a government shutdown and fears of a Treasury Department default.
Some observers have noted a growing gap between the GOP leadership and its populist wing.
“The schism between the party’s establishment Republicans and Trump-style populists raises questions about whether President Joe Biden can trust lawmakers to continue funding the flow of US military equipment to Ukraine if Democrats lose control of Congress,” noted the Defense News website last month. .
On the campaign trail, Democrats have used the threat of a Republican takeover that would sink aid to Ukraine as a talking point.
In Ohio, Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan has repeatedly hounded his Republican opponent, JD Vance, over the latter’s admission: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”
Doubtful conservative groups
Over the weekend, the influential Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) posted a tweet that immediately drew attention because it seemed to validate Putin’s claim that he had “annexed” four regions of Ukraine.
“Vladimir Putin announces the annexation of 4 territories occupied by Ukraine,” the tweet read. “Biden and the Democrats continue to send Ukraine billions of taxpayer dollars. Meanwhile, we are under attack on our southern border. When will the Democrats put on #AmericaFirst and end gift-giving to Ukraine?
The organization later removed the tweet, claiming it had not been approved by its leadership. He was replaced by one who called Putin “crazy” and his invasion of Ukraine illegal.
However, the same reluctance to continue funding Ukraine at current levels remained.
“We should oppose Putin, but American taxpayers should not bear the vast majority of the cost,” CPAC said.
Other conservative organizations have also raised concerns.
“The American people are tired of the neoconservative political consensus that demands that billions of their tax dollars be spent to defend the integrity of Ukraine’s border when resources and management cannot be found to address ours,” Russ Vought, President of the Center for Renewing America. he told the Defense One website last month. “This new package will prolong a fight that an American dog lacks [presionando el interés de EE.UU.]which will allow regional allies to shirk their security responsibilities once again.”
divert resources
On Sunday, Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, whose home state of Florida had just been devastated by a hurricane, took to Twitter to suggest that aid to Ukraine was siphoning off aid from his constituents.
“Dear Congress: On behalf of my fellow Florida man who urgently needs help… Just send us half of what you sent to Ukraine. Signed, your fellow Americans,” he wrote.
Last week, in announcing her vote against a spending resolution that included more funding for Ukraine, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green tweeted: “Today I will vote NO on the continuing resolution to fund all 50 states in the United States, plus the number one state.” 51 from the United States: Ukraine. Also in the news, Vladimir Putin has just annexed a large part of Ukraine. Are we also financing Russia?
House Republican leaders have indicated that if they take office, the general opinion of their caucus, including newly elected members, will influence their decision-making.
Speaking to reporters last month, Rep. Elise Stefanik, the third-ranking Republican in the House, said, “We want to make sure they get all the reports. I know there is a concern, rightly so, about the oversight of those dollars. I’m not going to get ahead of our members before the election, our newly elected members. It will be a decision of the conference of those new members.”
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