ISRAEL (Possible) agreement between Lebanese and Israelis to unblock gas exploitation

The mediation of the American envoy Hochstesin seems to have resolved the deadlock on the maritime borders, which threatened to lead to a conflict. The area bounded by line 23 and all of Cana remains for Lebanon. But on both fronts there are elements hostile to the firm. In case of elections, Netanyahu has already announced that it is cancelled. The role of Hezbollah.

Beirut () – Two years after the opening in Ras Nakoura (southern border) of indirect negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, under the aegis of the UN and the United States, for the delimitation of maritime borders, a agreement between the two countries. “Lebanon has been granted all the rights over the Cana gas field,” the vice president of the Chamber, Elias Bou Saab, one of the key men in the talks on this delicate matter, congratulated himself yesterday. He then insisted that Lebanon’s position is “unified”, referring to the government summit that had just concluded in the Baabda Palace between the head of state, the president of the Chamber and the prime minister, to analyze the written text of the agreement. Signed by the emissary Amos Hochstein, the document was sent to them by the American ambassador, Dorothy Shea, who had considered it “very satisfactory”.

The proposal formulated by Hochstein contemplates that the area granted to Lebanon is delimited by line 23 and at the same time Beirut obtains the entirety of the Cana deposit, which exceeds the area delimited by that line to the south. For its part, Israel is assigned control of the Karish deposit in its entirety. An intermediate zone, located between line 23 and a section of buoys laid by Israel from a point on its territory, will be under the supervision of the United Nations and will serve as “no man’s land”.

No association with Israel

Before the meeting, Aoun had met in Baabda with the technical committee in charge of the issue of maritime borders and with the director of the Department for North Africa and the Middle East of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Anne Guéguen. In the presence of the latter, he specified that “some points [del acuerdo] are still being studied” and that further clarifications should be made, just as a precaution. The ratification, he continued, will take place at a second time in Ras Nakoura.

Aoun added that the French giant Total Energies is in charge of starting exploration operations in Lebanese waters, and then clarified that “there will be no association with the Israeli side.” In this regard, it should be remembered that Beirut had already made known its clear refusal to pay any amount as compensation to Israel for the part of the Cana gas field that exceeds line 23.

According to what appears to be one of the companies of the Total-ENI consortium responsible for the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons on the high seas in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Lebanon, in this case Total could probably act as an intermediary, paying itself, out of its own pocket, to the Israeli counterpart.

The deal has sparked discontent in both Lebanon and Israel. In the country of the Cedars, some deputies from the opposition front deplored the fact that line 29 was ignored, which they considered “a right scientifically and unquestionably acquired by Lebanon.” Lebanon’s rights have been revised downwards, claimed one of them, Ibrahim Mneimné. In those circles there is even talk of an “act of treason, which hands over the rights of Lebanon without any legal document”. We want to clarify here that line 29 cuts the Karish deposit and, therefore, would also have given Lebanon rights to a part of it. Analysts believe that sticking to this position would have prolonged the talks indefinitely and perhaps even led to war, when instead it was necessary to “seize the moment” for a market that has become even more strategic for the world economy with the invasion Russian from ‘Ukraine. And also considering that the future lies in renewable energies.

the israeli front

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Yaïr Lapid told the weekly government meeting on October 2 that Hochstein’s proposal on the maritime border with Lebanon “protects” and “strengthens” Israeli interests. “Israel has been trying to reach this agreement for more than 10 years. In this way, security in the north of the country is reinforced. The Karish field will come online and produce natural gas… We are not opposed to the development of a supplementary field in Lebanon, from which we will be able to receive our fair share,” added Lapid.

However, with a few weeks to go before the general elections scheduled for November 1, the main opposition figure and leader of Likud, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has threatened to unilaterally withdraw the country from the agreement if he is chosen to form the future government. “Lapid seems to capitulate to Hassan Nasrallah and grants Hezbollah a sovereign territory of the State of Israel, with a huge gas field that belongs to you, Israeli citizens,” Netanyahu shouted yesterday, in a video reproduced on the internet and social networks.

For its part, at the beginning of the summer Hezbollah multiplied the threats of a military confrontation with Israel if the latter began extraction at the Karish deposit before Lebanon could do the same in its Exclusive Economic Zone. In this context, the Walla news portal, which is considered close to Netanyahu, published the statements of a source who claimed that the agreement was a “victory for Nasrallah.” And in Lebanon, officials like Walid Joumblatt are not far from believing that Hezbollah’s threats, seen by some as a bluff, have finally worked.