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According to the polling firm ‘Datafolha’, the rejection of the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, is increasing. The voting intention gives former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the winner, who would win over his contender with 45%, a result that, however, does not prevent the ballot. Experts maintain that the questionable management of the pandemic and the deep crisis that Brazil is experiencing may be key elements for the far-right’s non-reelection.
A survey revealed by the ‘Datafolha’ Institute and published by the newspaper ‘O Globo’ and ‘Folha de São Paulo’, shows that the current Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, will not have his long-awaited re-election easy in the general elections on October 2 , where he competes directly against former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who, in the heat of demoscopy, seems to consolidate his electoral options.
53% of the voters consulted say they completely reject Bolsonaro. Among them, 38% do it for Lula. A percentage that is not new for the former president, who has always had support within his political formation, the progressive Workers’ Party; but it is an unprecedented figure for Bolsonaro, “a president who is fighting for his re-election,” according to Carolina Botelho, a political scientist and researcher at the Electoral Studies Laboratory of the State University of Rio de Janeiro.
Less than 20 days before the elections, the leftist Lula maintains 45% of the voting intention, while Bolsonaro takes 33%. This makes the margin of success for other candidates slim.
If the results of the polls are confirmed next Sunday, October 2, Lula da Silva would win but he would not avoid the ballot, because for a candidate to win the elections in the first round he needs to obtain 50% plus one of the valid votes. issued.
Of course, the demoscopy also gives the former union leader victory in the second round, which would make his rival, the far-right Bolsonaro, the first candidate to lose a re-election since this figure was established in the Constitution in 1994.
The current president, between the government and the campaign, has tried to increase his approval percentages by granting subsidies to the most impoverished sectors of the population, but for the moment this strategy does not seem to have brought him positive results, at least according to this survey.
For the political scientist Botelho, “re-election normally occurs because the president has the government machine at his disposal and it is a powerful electoral weapon, but Bolsonaro had such a bad performance that he managed to annul that powerful weapon.”
Despite having more room for maneuver over his opponent, Lula da Silva also faces widespread rejection among the population and has had to go out to the regions where he faces greater resistance. Bolsonaro, for his part, has taken the same path in the final stretch of the campaign.
Precisely this Friday the two candidates went out to the campaign strongholds of their rivals to try to capture votes. The representative of the left went to the southern states, where Bolsonaro has the largest number of voters, and the rightist left for the northeast of the country, Lula’s homeland.
Women the most reluctant to re-elect Bolsonaro
According to ‘Datafolha’, women are the population group that presents the most resistance to the current president: 56% say they reject him. In Brazil, with a niche of 156.4 million people with the right to vote, 52% of them are women.
The broad rejection, according to analysts, is largely due to the president’s questionable handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his virus denial attitude. In addition, the excessive inflation that the country faces is also among the reasons for the discomfort with Bolsonaro, according to Debora Thome, a researcher at the Gender Laboratory of the Fluminense Federal University.
According to the expert, the female vote is influenced by economic and health issues. In addition, another of the triggers is the “brutality of the speech” of Bolsonaro, who is a fierce defender of weapons and has an aggressive rhetoric against his opponents.
Due to the electoral setback in the polls, the president decided to tone down his speech and apologized for the way he referred to the pandemic.
According to Botelho, “Bolsonaro attacks the institutions and the rule of law and when he is limited or constrained, radicalization decreases. It is part of his strategy,” and he stressed that the “very high rejection” makes his re-election impossible.
After months of questioning the electoral system and denouncing the possibilities of fraud, Bolsonaro admitted for the first time that if he lost the elections he would hand over power without delay.
With EFE and local media
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