Said is building a hybrid, semi-democratic system in Tunisia, in which there will be elections, but the competition will not be balanced, like ‘Erdogan in Turkey or Orbán in Hungary,’ according to Political Science professor Tarek Kahlaoui.
On August 18, Tunisia launched a new constitution tailored to its president, Kais Said. Thus, the democratic Constitution of 2014 was buried, one of the main achievements of the democratic transition that began after the revolution that deposed the dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. However, the new Magna Carta was born with a questionable legitimacy, since only 30.5% of the population participated in the referendum on July 25, although the vast majority of them (94%) voted in favor. More than giving stability to the country, as Said argues, the new fundamental law has aggravated internal divisions. The current political process of exclusion could lead to a civil confrontation in the not too distant future.
According to experts, the new political system is “hyper-presidential” and codifies the full powers that Said assumed in the summer of 2021, making a dubious and interested interpretation of article 80 of the Constitution referring to the state of emergency. The president has almost absolute power, since several of the independent institutions created in 2014 disappear. Not even the two chambers of Parliament will have tools to control their political action. In fact, the new fundamental law, which Said did not agree with any political or social actor, does not include any mechanism so that Parliament can dismiss the president even if he has committed an illegality.
Said, a 64-year-old independent politician, was elected president in 2019 with more than 70% of the vote. It is not easy to hang an ideological label on him, since he is both conservative in moral matters and disruptive in political terms, always using a populist discourse. With a reputation for integrity and austerity, he promised to get rid of a “corrupt” political class that he blames for not having improved the standard of living of Tunisians during ten years of transition. Now, no one imagined three years ago that Said would carry out a “constitutional coup.”
“Tunisia was the only country of the Arab springs that had managed to sustain a transition process until Said’s coup in 2021”
The National Salvation Front, the platform that brings together several of the country’s main parties, questioned the results of the referendum and, above all, the participation rate. “The results announced by ISIE are far from those verified by observers, which reinforces doubts about the impartiality and independence of ISIE,” read a statement made public by the platform. In May, Said unilaterally relieved the members of ISIE, the Electoral Board that had been praised for transparently organizing all elections in the post-revolutionary period. Tunisia was the only country of the Arab springs that had managed to sustain a transition process until Said’s coup in 2021.
Beyond the credibility of the figures, supporters and detractors of the president made very different assessments of the consequences it should have. “The results have shown that Said is in the minority, and he should imperatively resign,” stressed Jawhar ben Mbarek, a prominent member of civil society and one of the Front’s leaders. Analysts made a less conclusive reading of the participation rate, because, even though it was too small to approve a constitutional change, it was higher than expected by many. The president, for his part, wanted to celebrate election day by walking through the streets of the central Avenida Bourguiba in the capital, just after the schools closed. Acclaimed by his followers, Said gave no sign of wanting to give in to solve the crisis the country is experiencing through dialogue, as requested by the international community.
With the opposition very weak after a year of government by decree, the only actor that has really put Said on the pulse is the judiciary. In February, the heterodox Tunisian president attacked judicial independence and dissolved the Superior Council of the Judiciary, the body in charge of appointing and assigning judges. A week later, he reconstituted it with a new composition. The action generated unease among the judiciary, but the decision that put this body on a war footing was a decree in June by which 57 judges were dismissed from their duties. Said accused them, among other things, of “financial and moral corruption.” The judges stood up and organized a four-week strike, and three of the revoked judges went on hunger strike.
«Said has a small and hermetic group of advisers, so it is not easy to anticipate his next moves»
On August 10, the Tunis Administrative Court ruled to suspend the application of the decree, urging the readmission of 49 of them because there was no evidence against them. This was the first time that a State institution defied him and refused to carry out orders. However, it is not clear that the State complies with the sentence. In the first reaction to the verdict, the Minister of Justice, Leila Jaffel, made it known through a statement that the criminal actions against the magistrates would not stop, suggesting that she would not give in.
Although the president has assured that he would not dissolve the parties, his detractors doubt his word. Above all, the historic Ennahda Islamist movement, the party with the most votes in the last legislative elections, and its staunchest detractor. Said has a small and hermetic group of advisers, so it is not easy to anticipate his next moves. Political science professor Tarek Kahlaoui, who is well-connected in the presidential circle and has extensively studied the phenomenon of populism, believes that opposition comparisons between Said and deposed dictator Ben Ali are exaggerated. “Most likely, it will build a hybrid, semi-democratic system, in which there will be elections, but the competition will not be balanced. Something similar happens with Erdogan in Turkey or Orbán in Hungary”, he maintains.
The next stage in Said’s project is the holding of legislative elections on December 17. As the new Constitution does not establish any parameters for the electoral law, it will also be promulgated unilaterally by the president. Everything seems to indicate that the elections will represent a new confrontation between Said and the opposition in a conflict that is expected to last a long time.
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