Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping, faced by the legacy of Deng Xiaoping

The prime minister wants the country to maintain the “reform and opening up” policy that underpinned China’s economic miracle. With his “common prosperity”, Xi aims to centralize power. The national economy is in trouble, with a rapidly aging population. The election of a new prime minister, a crucial decision for the future.

Beijing () – On the eve of the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Prime Minister Li Keqiang is dedicated to rescuing Deng Xiaoping’s political legacy, threatened by Xi Jinping’s aspirations for greatness.

“Little Helmsman” Deng is the father of the boom economic (and political) history of China in the last 40 years. His “reform and opening” policy, which remains officially the Party line, aims to increase the nation’s wealth. While behind Xi’s “common prosperity” social redistribution goals, many observers see an attempt at Maoist-style centralization of power.

This latest analysis is confirmed by the probable recognition of a third (and even fourth) term of Xi in power. Something that will be decided during the PCC Congress (which opens on October 16) and that would set an exception in the country, where the usual practice is to limit the permanence of the supreme leader in power to a maximum of 10 years.

During his visit to Shenzhen (Guangdong) on ​​August 16 and 17, Li seems to have wanted to send a coded message to Xi regarding the direction the country should take: “Our [política] of reforms and openings must continue to advance. The Yellow River and the Yangtze will not go backwards”. It must be remembered that Guangdong was the starting point of the “tour of the south” with which, in 1992, Deng promoted the liberalization of the Chinese economy and its opening to the world.

Li’s insightful comments come at a time of serious difficulties for the Chinese economy, which many blame on Xi’s wrong decisions, especially his willingness to “reduce to zero” the spread of Covid-19, at the cost of paralyzing the country. Youth unemployment is already close to 20% of the workforce; in public administration, income has fallen by up to 30%; the latest data show a sharp decline in exports. A is expected boom of spending on pensions and retirement: in a third of the provinces, 20% of the population is over 60 years of age.

Sinologist Willy Lam points out in Chinese Brief that Xi is not known for being a skillful policymaker in the economic (and diplomatic) arena. Where he stands out is in his ability to “expand the influence” of his faction within the CCP.

For years, Xi tended to sideline Li in his role as prime minister in charge of economic policy. However, he has now had to give space to his internal opponent to try to redirect the faltering Chinese economy. With a difficult economic outlook, in addition to the question of a possible successor to Xi, the leadership The national government faces a key decision: choosing a new prime minister.

First Vice Premier Han Zheng, who is close to Xi, is qualified for the job. However, due to his age (68 years), he should retire, according to Party rules. Li is pushing his protégé Hu Chunhua, also a deputy prime minister, but it would be a big concession by Xi to the prime minister’s Communist Youth faction. According to Katsuji Nakazawa, of Asian NikkeiChina’s business circles would like to see Wang Yang take over as prime minister. He is the chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and number four in the current Party hierarchy.

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