State of the climate in Africa: the environmental health of the continent on red alert

A series of extreme weather events such as increasing droughts, devastating floods and water stress, the consumption of water higher than available resources, are severely affecting African communities, economies and ecosystems, warned Thursday the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

A new report from that agency indicates that the African continent’s rainfall patterns have altered, that glaciers are disappearing, that the most important lakes are shrinking and that the increase in the demand for water, combined with a limited and unpredictable supply , threatens to exacerbate conflict and displacement.

The study shows how extreme weather and climate change are undermining human health and safety, food and water security, and socioeconomic development. Africa only accounts for between 2% and 3% of global greenhouse gas emissionsbut suffers the results totally disproportionately.

Water stress, rising temperatures, drought and famine

High water stress in Africa is estimated to affect some 250 million people and is projected to by 2030 it could displace up to 700 million. Furthermore, four out of five African nations are unlikely to have sustainably managed water resources by the end of the current decade.

“The worsening crisis and looming famine in the drought-stricken Horn of Africa shows how climate change can exacerbate water crises, threatening the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and destabilizing entire communities, countries and regions” , said the WMO Secretary General.

Professor Petteri Taalas highlighted that “Africa’s climate has warmed more than the global average since pre-industrial times (1850-1900). At the same time, sea ​​level rise along African coasts is faster than the global average, contributing to increased frequency and severity of coastal flooding and erosion, as well as salinity in low-lying cities. Changes in inland water masses have important repercussions on the agricultural sector, ecosystems and biodiversity.”

The report presents a series of recommendations such as strengthening early warning systems, which currently only have 40% of the African population, increasing cross-border cooperation, data exchange and knowledge sharing.

Likewise, it qualifies as “fundamental” a greater investment in climate adaptation, as well as a joint impulse towards a more integrated management of water resources.

Key messages of the report

• Temperatures in Africa rose by an average of about +0.3°C/decade between 1991 and 2021, faster than the 1961-1990 warming of +0.2°C/decade. The year 2021 was the third or fourth warmest on record in Africa.
• Sea level rise along African coasts is higher than the global average, especially along the Red Sea and the southwestern Indian Ocean, where the rate is nearly 4 mm/year. This situation is likely to continue in the future, contributing to increased frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying cities and increased groundwater salinity due to seawater intrusion. By 2030, between 108 and 116 million people in Africa are expected to be at risk of sea level rise.
• Drought in East Africa has worsened after consecutive dry seasons combined with increased conflict, related population displacement and restrictions caused by COVID-19. High food prices impeded food availability and access, leaving more than 58 million people acutely food insecure. The situation is getting worse this year, especially in Ethiopia, Somalia and parts of Kenya. The south of Madagascar is also suffering from an acute drought.
• South Sudan, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi experienced severe flooding. In South Sudan, extreme flooding was recorded for the third consecutive year, causing the water level of lakes and rivers to rise, as a result of the intense rains of 2020 and 2021.
• Many parts of North Africa experienced extreme heat, especially Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Libya. This rise in temperatures was accompanied by forest fires. Constant sand and dust storms were also a problem.
• The main concern is drought and flooding. In the last 50 years, the dangers related to droughts they have claimed the lives of more than half a million people and have caused economic losses of more than 70,000 million dollars in the region. In this period, more than 1,000 disasters related to flooding have been recorded, causing more than 20,000 deaths. It is estimated that by 2050 climate impacts could cost African nations $50 billion annually.
• The total area of ​​Lake Chad, located near the Sahara desert and bordering Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger, has been reduced from 25,000 km2 in the 1960s to 1,350 km2 in the 2000s and has remained stable ever since. In West Africa, the long-term decline in river flow is attributed to rising temperatures, drought and increased demand for water.
• Glaciers on Mount Kenya (Kenya), Mount Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) and the Rwenzoris Mountains (Uganda) are retreating at a faster rate than the global average. Whether the glaciers disappear completely in East Africa depends on the amount of precipitation that falls in the future in that region.
• Rising temperatures have contributed to a 34% reduction in agricultural productivity growth in Africa since 1961, more than in any other region of the world. This trend is expected to continue in the future, increasing the risk of acute food insecurity and malnutrition. Global warming of 1.5°C is projected to be associated with a 9% decline in maize yields in West Africa and a 20-60% decline in wheat yields in Southern and Northern Africa.